How a scandal-plagued Senate bid could reshape a key Canada trade state

WASHINGTON, D.C. — National political parties tend to steer clear of candidates with controversial pasts because they put future wins at the ballot box at risk.

But a U.S. Senate candidate in Maine is bucking that trend and is likely to leave Democrats in an awkward position this year.

Maine’s Senate race matters not only for control of the chamber, but also because the state sits on the front line of U.S.-Canada trade, where tariffs, border policy and cross-border supply chains are daily concerns.

Oyster farmer Graham Platner, 41, has gained early momentum with his progressive platform and populist style — striking a chord on affordability issues that matter to voters — and his bid to oust five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins.

Despite his popularity, Platner has also been dogged by scandal. He has faced criticism for a Nazi-symbol tattoo from his younger years (he claims he didn’t know what it meant and has since covered it up), his offensive posts on Reddit, and sending sexually explicit texts to other women while married . His latest scandal involved allegations from women he’s dated that he was toxic and behaved in unsettling ways. Platner has denied the accusations.

Heading into Tuesday’s Democratic primary, Platner remains the favourite, despite the controversies. That means he will almost certainly face off against Collins in November’s midterms. Governor Janet Mills had been running for the seat and remains on the primary ballot, but she suspended her campaign in the spring amid fundraising woes and Platner’s surge.

“It is deeply disturbing that senior Democrats, or anyone for that matter, would still stand by Graham Platner,” said Andrew Hale, fellow at Advancing American Freedom, “and his disgusting moral failures involving violence against women, online pornographic writings, sexting, sexual predation, and a Nazi tattoo.”

“Anyone else would have been immediately disqualified.”

Hale said that Collins and Mills have been “true public servants who have proven their dedication to Maine without the moral failings of Graham Platner.”

Nonetheless, Maine’s Democrats are likely to pick Platner for the job this week, and structurally, the odds are tough for Collins come November because Maine is the most likely GOP-held Senate seat the Democrats could win.

It’s the only Republican-held seat in a state Trump has never won — Kamala Harris beat the president by seven percentage points there — which makes it inherently vulnerable, explained Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at The Cook Political Report.

“On paper, (it) should be the most competitive Senate seat because it’s the only one held by a Republican that a Democrat carried in the presidential election,” Taylor said.

For Democrats, it could be the different between controlling the Senate in November and watching Republicans continue to dominate there.

“I don’t think Democrats can win the Senate without winning Maine,” said Taylor.

Still, Collins has managed to win in the past by currying favour despite the state’s Democratic lean.

“(She) is really the only Republican in the Senate who sits in a state that tends to vote for Democrats at the presidential level but still reelects her,” said Erin Covey, Taylor’s colleague and the editor in charge of The Cook Political Report’s coverage of the U.S. House of Representatives .

“That’s because she has managed to separate herself from the national party, and she is one of the few Republicans who will criticize Trump or will vote against his policies from time to time.”

However, this year could be different, they both agreed.

“Even though (Collins) has built up a lot of goodwill with Democrats and independents in Maine over the years,” said Covey, “I do think that over time frustration has grown, because even as she occasionally does break with Trump or criticize him, people feel like she hasn’t done that enough.”

Taylor agreed, pinpointing that the race is likely to come down to one thing: anti-Trump sentiment.

“Donald Trump is the biggest complicating factor for Susan Collins’ reelection,” she said.

“If you want to voice your displeasure with Trump, the only way you have to do that is to vote against Susan Collins.”

A small survey of 100 people conducted by Trump-aligned pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee, and Travis Tunis late last week found Platner and Collins tied at 46 per cent. Platner’s unfavourability rating, however, had plunged from 29 per cent in January to 49 per cent now, and the poll pointed out that “the recent revelation about Platner can further erode his support.”

A May poll by the Pan Atlantic Research Survey — taken before the latest scandal broke — put the oyster farmer ahead of Collins, 48 per cent to 41 per cent, while 11 per cent were undecided.

Taylor thinks Platner could overcome the controversy.

“Even with the baggage …,” she said, “there’s still a very good chance that he could still win this race.”

Collins, Taylor said, is in “the most vulnerable position she’s ever been,” making the race a true toss-up.

But what could it mean for Maine-Canada relations if the Pine Tree State loses Collins? That is less clear.

While Platner has been campaigning on pocketbook issues, he has said little about trade with Canada, and there is no guarantee that a Democratic win in Maine — and even control of the Senate — would lead to more pro-Canada trading policies.

Progressives like Bernie Sanders, for example, support tariffs as a trade tool, even if they oppose Trump’s chaotic approach to using them.

“If the midterms come and Democrats come in, I don’t see that necessarily being good for (Canada),” said Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

“(Platner) is an AOC guy, and I could see him and the other progressives that are coming in and joining Bernie Sanders and AOC who have said tariffs are fine.”

“So thinking that the midterms are going to elect people who are gonna say, ‘Yes, on day one, I’m going to fix the relationship with Canada,’” is misguided, Dade explained.

“These aren’t bad people. They’re not going to be malicious, but they can’t be our friends,” he said.

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