New poll shows Liberals riding 'fear' vote, Tories winning 'hope,' as gap narrows slightly

OTTAWA — The election is playing out as a story of hopeful Conservative voters versus fearful Liberal voters, according to a new Postmedia-Leger poll . Three-quarters of Canadians who plan to vote Conservative said the emotion guiding them is “primarily a hope for a better future in Canada to live, work, and raise a family.” By contrast, six in 10 Liberal voters said they were motivated primarily by “a fear of what the future holds for Canada,” with the unpredictable U.S. President Donald Trump threatening trade relations. Just three in 10 who plan to support the Liberals said hope was driving them to the polls. Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president, says the responses reflect the differences between Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. “In a way, it’s a bit of the ballot-question battle,” said Enns on Wednesday. “Those respondents to our poll who are currently voting Liberal tend to think this election is about the fear of the U.S. and protecting Canada from Trump.” “And you’ve got the Conservatives who are a bit more inclined on the topic of change, and a future that looks better than the last five or so years (did).” Enns noted that Trump has tapped into an especially deep-seated fear among Quebec voters, who were most likely to say their vote is being driven by fear. Voters in Quebec were the most likely of any region to say their votes are being driven by fear, at 44 per cent, compared to 40 per cent by hope. “A lot of Quebecers, even sovereigntists, are saying they see Trump as an existential threat,” said Enns. “If Canada ever became the 51st state, I guarantee you there wouldn’t be official bilingualism.” Voters who say they plan to support the Bloc Québécois are evenly split on the question of hope versus fear, at 37 per cent apiece. Overall, 51 per cent of voters nationally were voting out of hope, while 39 per cent were voting out of fear. Most Conservative, NDP, Green and PPC voters said hope is their primary motivator. One in 10 voters said neither fear nor hope was the primary emotion guiding their vote. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents said Trump is influencing their voting decision to some degree, with 21 per cent saying he influenced it “a lot.” Overall, the poll also shows the Liberals hanging onto the lead 43 per cent of support nationally, down one point from last week’s Leger poll. They are five points ahead of the Conservatives, who rose one point to 38 per cent. Oversampling to dig deeper into Ontario specifically found the Tories three points behind the Liberals (47 to 44) in the parts of the GTA outside metro Toronto, considered a key suburban battleground for both parties. The Liberals show a 10-point lead in the Hamilton and Niagara regions (46 to 36) and a 20-point lead in the eastern part of the province. Conservatives had more support in the south of the province (46 to 37 per cent) and the north (47 to 43). The poll also asked respondents about various qualities in the two leaders. Carney was judged to be stronger than Poilievre on managing the relationship with Trump (46 versus 28 per cent), maintaining the economy amid uncertainty (44 versus 31 per cent), handling the cost of living crisis and inflation (38 versus 33 per cent) and improving national unity (36 versus 29 per cent). The two were tied on being “in touch with the realities of today’s Canada” and “growing your province’s economy.” Poilievre was judged stronger than Carney on understanding “the concerns of people like me” (33 per cent for Poilievre, 27 per cent for Carney), being capable of fixing the immigration system (35 to 26 per cent for Poilievre) and his ability to lower taxes (39 to 25 per cent). When asked what each of the two leaders can bring to dealing with Trump, the most common reason cited for Carney was his experience as a central banker, cited by 45 per cent of respondents. For Poilievre, it was his ability to grow the economy, with 30 per cent citing that reason. The poll suggests Conservatives could still close the gap, as three in 10 Liberal voters say they remain open to changing their mind. The bad news for Poilievre is that this week’s leaders’ debates look unlikely to have much impact on many voters. Fewer than two in 10 voters said the debates would affect how they vote. Just over half said they’d “definitely” or “probably” be tuning into either Wednesday’s French debate or Thursday’s English debate. But Enns said he wouldn’t put too much stock into the self-selected viewership numbers. “I’d probably put it at 30 per cent who will actually sit down and watch the debates, if we’re lucky,” said Enns. The debates will be up against the last few days of the NHL’s regular season, with multiple Canadian teams still in the hunt for playoff spots. It was announced on Wednesday afternoon that Thursday’s French language debate will go ahead two hours earlier than originally planned to minimize overlap with the Montreal Canadiens’ last game of the season.  The survey was taken between April 11 and 14, using a sample of 3,005 adults recruited from a Leger-founded panel. Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 1.79 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. National Post rmohamed@postmedia.com

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