The Bloc Québécois is pinning all of its hopes on the debates

OTTAWA — Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has the future of his party’s campaign on his shoulders with two debates that the Bloc hopes will boost his popularity. From Montreal to Chicoutimi, one common thread emerges from the Bloc supporters’ rhetoric: the debates will change everything. They believe that undecided voters or those likely to change their minds and vote for another party, who represent about a third of the population according to polls, will be inclined to support the separatist party of La Belle Province. A dozen Bloc insiders and supporters told us they expect a turnaround in the polls after Blanchet’s performance in the French and English debates in Montreal on Wednesday and Thursday. According to the latest Postmedia-Leger poll, the Liberals have a 15-point lead over the Bloc in Quebec. Even Blanchet has spoken at length about the debates since the beginning of the campaign, suggesting that Mark Carney would “discover his temperament” during a debate. In an interview, Rodolphe Husny, a former advisor to Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, suggested that the Bloc should “manage expectations” and adapt its strategy accordingly. “You should never be overconfident because it’s when you’re overconfident that you make your mistakes and you don’t win a debate when expectations are too high,” he said. According to a recent Ipsos poll , Carney was the clear favourite for the English debate (41 per cent) compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre. But for the French debate, Poilievre (34 per cent) was leading Blanchet (20 per cent) and Carney (16 per cent). In the province, several observers have already suggested that Blanchet will have the best performance. “Around one-quarter in each feel that none of the party leaders will win either the English or French debates,” wrote CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs Darrell Bricker in a note. In an interview with National Post, communications strategist Louis Aucoin said the Bloc should not “assume that Yves-François Blanchet is a good debater, because everyone recognizes that.” He added that the timing of the debates is important, taking place just days before advance polls and a week and a half before election day. The debate, he added, “needs to percolate into public opinion”. The Léger poll found that only 17 per cent of Canadians and 20 per cent of Quebecers believe the debates could influence their vote, compared to 21 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters. Furthermore, 40 per cent of Bloc voters could change their minds by election day, compared to 29 per cent of Liberals and 14 per cent of Conservatives. About one in five voters in Quebec have the Liberals or the Bloc as their second choice. Moreover, Blanchet is the leader that Quebecers would invite for dinner at their home with (19 per cent), seven points ahead of the three other leaders, but far behind the “None” category at 32 per cent. “April 16th is an eminently important date; it will be the first clear opportunity to challenge (Mark Carney) in a controlled environment. My job will be to ask Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre the questions that have not been answered,” Blanchet told media a couple of days ago. Bloc insiders have suggested that the 2021 English debate, where moderator Shachi Kurl appeared to imply that Blanchet held racist views toward “religious minorities, anglophones, and allophones,” completely changed the course of the campaign and helped the Bloc secure 32 seats. Aucoin believes that Blanchet will first and foremost have to adjust his message before hoping for a gift from heaven. “He needs to adjust his focus to the issues surrounding the tariff war because when I look at the Bloc’s latest announcements, it feels like we’re in the last campaign,” he said, noting that the separatist party has consistently emphasized identity and language issues. These issues don’t seem to be holding the attention of the Quebec electorate this time around. The fact that Blanchet told the media that he didn’t need “any particular preparation” for the debates does not bode well, according to Aucoin. “He’s formidable, but it requires the same preparation as the other leaders. And if he neglects that, he’s taking risks that shouldn’t be taken,” he said. On Tuesday, Blanchet was in Montreal but had a busy day until the evening when he participated in an event in the Laurentians with a Quebec singer. “My preparation is more about a state of mind, I think. It will be a very calm state of mind,” he said. In comparison, little has been said about the preparations of the Liberal and Conservative leaders in the Montreal area. On Tuesday, Blanchet also suggested that the French-language debate be moved to accommodate Quebecers watching the Montreal Canadiens compete for a playoff spot. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh joined Blanchet in asking the commission to move the debate to another time, which it ultimately did. The commission moved the debate to 6 p.m., rather than keeping it at 8 p.m. In 2011, Gilles Duceppe requested that the debate be moved so that Canadians wouldn’t have to choose between politicians and hockey players. At the time, the Montreal Canadiens were playing their first playoff game against the Boston Bruins. At the time, the request was also granted. However, Duceppe slipped in that debate suggesting that the NDP could never form the government. “That’s a bit arrogant. I expect to hear that from Mr. Ignatieff, but not from you,” replied Layton at the time. Three weeks later, the orange wave swept Quebec and the Bloc Québécois only had four seats left. Duceppe also lost his seat. And in Quebec, several sources feared that Blanchet was as arrogant as Duceppe was at the time. “You know, in a two-hour debate, each leader will speak for 20 or 25 minutes,” he said at a press conference Tuesday. “It doesn’t require a lot of preparation in terms of content.” Blanchet, who celebrates his birthday on Wednesday, might be hoping that other leaders would give him a gift: a boost in the polls. National Post atrepanier@postmedia.com

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