John Ivison: Liberal bus stops near the border and finds reason to be confident

NIAGARA FALLS, ONT. — Standing against a background of the famous falls, Mark Carney was asked about his debate experience this week and turned to Charles Dickens’ famous opening line from A Tale of Two Cities. “It was the best and worst of times as a participant,” he said, complimenting the moderators and structure of the French and English language debates but decrying the furor over the cancellation of post-debate scrums after arguments between Rebel News and other media outlets. The Dickens quote continues that “it was the age of wisdom; it was the age of foolishness,” which sums up the tempest in a teapot nature of the scrap. Did voters really need to hear any more from the candidates after four hours of debate? The conclusion of Dickens’ classic opening paragraph is that “it was the spring of hope; it was the winter of despair.”

• Jamie Sarkonak: Who won the debate? Poilievre, easy
• John Ivison: A debate Liberals can call a success, but not much else

The morning after the debates, the travelling Liberal contingent were on the sunny side of that paradox. They feel that the rope-a-dope strategy of absorbing punches from three opponents, while allowing him to counter-attack when he needed to, persuaded the judges to score the bout as a tie, which is in line with the public polling. The sun was shining as the Liberals left Montreal and headed into potentially vote-rich territory in the Niagara region, where the rupture in relations with the United States is an existential issue. There are four seats here — Niagara Falls-Niagara on the Lake, Niagara West, Niagara South and St. Catharines. Prior to the writ drop, the first two were held by the Conservatives, Tony Baldinelli and Dean Allison; and the latter two by the Liberals, Vance Badawey and Chris Bittle. The Liberals say they are “very positive” about picking up the Niagara Falls seat held by Baldinelli with regional councillor, Andrea Kaiser, who lost narrowly in 2019 and 2021. She was only persuaded to run again after Carney won the leadership. This is a seat that the Liberals haven’t won for 25 years. They sound less optimistic about displacing Allison in next door Niagara West. But all the races in this region are tight and three months ago, every riding was expected to turn blue. There are probably very few areas of Canada where Liberal fortunes have turned as dramatically. Liberal candidates who were being chased off doorsteps are now being greeted warmly. If they don’t pick up this seat when their whole campaign is centred on border issues, and the NDP vote has collapsed, the party is destined for the opposition side of the House. Carney, flanked by the American side of the falls and a still-busy Rainbow bridge, was in danger of being blown away by the strong wind that persuaded his team to ditch his teleprompters. In his remarks, he talked about two towns with the same name straddling the shared border, each with a stake in the other’s success, but now divided by politics. The Chamber of Commerce has ranked Niagara Falls as one of the most threatened communities — 16th out of 41 — because of its exposure to tariffs hitting tourism and manufacturing. The reporter from the local Niagara Falls Review pointed out that people in the city have family and work connections over the border and asked Carney whether he thought things will ever return to normal. The Liberal leader said the situation is fluid. “It will be better than it is now, but it will never go back to what it was before,” he said. He ran through his greatest hits in relation to the tariff threat: “in a crisis, plan beats no plan”; “we have to act with overwhelming force”; and, who could forget?, “they’re trying to break us so they can own us.” Still, as Churchill pointed out, if you have an important point to make, don’t be subtle or clever: “Hit it once, then come back and hit it again. Then hit it a third time with a tremendous whack.” The Liberals are in the lead going into the final week of the campaign because they have not been subtle about the threat from the Trump administration. They have been subtle about many things — such as their plans for an industrial carbon tax and an emissions cap — but they have been frank, some might say alarmist, about Trump’s designs on our land, resources and water. (The party platform is expected to be released on Saturday, which may add specifics on energy policy that have not been forthcoming to this point.) Carney said he has been encouraged by Canadians coming together. “Americans are divided and that makes them weaker. We are uniting and that makes us stronger,” he said. He was asked whether he believes people in the West really feel common cause with those in the East. He pointed to the agreement by first ministers, including the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan, to build a common strategy of one Canadian economy that includes trade and energy corridors. “There is a shared sense of purpose,” he said. He was also asked about the Conservative accusation that he is just like Justin Trudeau. Carney has not been a politician long but he has quickly learned the art of kicking a fallen colleague in the guts for tactical advantage. “I’m not Justin Trudeau. In the first month of my being the prime minister, you can see the differences: a huge focus on the economy; the ability to bring together the provinces; the diversification of security partnerships with France, the U.K., Australia and the EU. I have a totally different approach,” he said. The four Liberal candidates in Niagara region are presumably very glad about that. National Post jivison@criffel.ca Twitter.com/IvisonJ