John Ivison: Conservative hopes are resurrected by Carney’s eye-watering spending plan

NEPEAN, ONT. – Diana Fox Carney introduced her husband beneath blue skies at a large outdoor rally in his chosen Ottawa-area riding of Nepean on Sunday. “Mark is unflappable because he puts in the prep work that is necessary,” she said. Liberals had best hope so because, as the election campaign enters its final week, the assault from the Conservatives on the tens of billions of dollars of new spending in the party’s platform has already started. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said on Sunday that he has long argued that Carney is the same as former prime minister Justin Trudeau. “(But) yesterday we learned that Mark Carney is far more costly than Justin Trudeau,” he said, pointing out the platform will add nearly a quarter-trillion dollars of extra debt. The Conservatives have yet to release their costed platform. When it comes out, it won’t be cheap either, given the size of Poilievre’s tax cut, which the party has said will cost $14 billion a year when fully implemented. But his claim against Carney is not just spin: Poilievre’s numbers come straight from the Liberal platform. Over the past four years, the Trudeau government racked up cumulative deficits of $235 billion (2024–25’s is an estimated $48.3 billion). Over the next four years, the Carney Liberals are projecting deficits of $225 billion . If Canada enters a recession and unemployment rises, that number is only going in one direction. This moment is far more dangerous for the Liberals than the debates — and all the signs are there that they were well aware of the potential for things to go south. The platform was released on the Saturday morning of the Easter long weekend, hardly prime time. But it had to come out at some point and, despite their best efforts to make the costing document so complex that it would baffle students of Byzantium, it was obvious to even the most innumerate of reporters that we were dealing with some pretty large numbers. Carney has been clear from Day 1 that his big ideas — reorienting the economy and “catalyzing” private investment — require some serious prime pumping. The prep work Liberals hope Carney has done is to sell a strategy for this moment that deflects the Conservatives’ criticism that the new boss is even worse than the old boss. Carney never fails to mention that we’re in the crisis of our lives. “In this crisis, do we want to meekly accept what America wants, or do we stand up for ourselves and each other,” he said in Nepean. Yet even the loyalists waving “Never 51” signs (against becoming America’s 51 st state) likely find the prospect of adding $225 billion to the national debt an eye-watering prospect. Carney told his audience that he will make sure his government “spends less, so that it can invest more.” His distinction is that the Liberal government under Trudeau spent too much on consumption and too little on productive investments: a ratio of two-thirds to one-third. Carney says he plans to reverse that ratio: increasing the operating budget at a rate of just two per cent a year, down from nine per cent over the past decade, and focusing new spending on capital projects like ports and highways. But will voters understand that nuance? The platform has created an opportunity for a Conservative counter-offensive — a chance to win back Liberal switchers worried about passing on too much debt to the future generations. “That inflationary debt will drive up the cost of food, housing and everything else,” said Poilievre. The Liberals are banking that the fear and anger generated by President Donald Trump’s talk of the 51st state convinces voters that Carney’s prescription of meeting this crisis with “overwhelming force” justifies layering on more debt. Millions of Canadians have already voted and most polls still give the Liberals a healthy lead. But this is not over yet. Conservative hopes have been resurrected on Easter Sunday. National Post jivison@criffel.ca Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.

• Pierre Poilievre promises to slash government consultant spending to pre-Liberal levels
• 'The system isn't working for them': Why young men are rallying around Poilievre