Loblaw lists grocery items that can see a price hike in Canada

The good news for grocery shoppers is that the price of olive oil has dropped substantially  over the last year. The bad news is that almost anything you cook with it is going to be more expensive. That’s one of the takeaways from the latest food inflation report released by Loblaw Companies Limited. The retailer operates more than 2,400 stores across Canada , including Loblaws, No Frills, Shoppers Drug Mart and Real Canadian Superstore. Its April food inflation report comes on the heels of Statistics Canada’s latest monthly bulletin , which reported that the Consumer Price Index — a measure of inflation calculated by the price of regular household purchases — was up 2.3 per cent year over year in March. StatCan also reported that the price of food purchased in stores was up even more, at 3.2 per cent year over year in March, up from 2.8 year over year the month before. The Loblaw bulletin for the month of April lists a number of grocery staples, including chicken breasts, pork and beef trim, coffee and eggs. In each case (except olive oil) the price is higher than it was a year ago, although some of the items have decreased somewhat in the last quarter. Topping the list are U.S. eggs, still up 65.3 per cent from a year ago, though they have come down 19 per cent in the last quarter. Loblaw notes that while Canadian eggs have remained much more stable in price, “Canada is a net importer of liquid eggs from the U.S., and that cost has increased substantially.” It adds: “Aside from liquid eggs in the egg aisle, the biggest impact will be seen in baked goods, like muffins, cakes and cookies.” Also high on the list is coffee. Coffee arabica prices are up 65 per cent from a year ago, and 6.6 per cent in the last quarter, while coffee robusta has gone up 33.7 per cent over the past year, but down 4.2 per cent in the last quarter. “Tight supplies from the 2024 harvest means continued volatility for coffee prices.” the report notes. “Recent U.S. tariffs on coffee growing countries led to a minor sell off, then rebound when tariffs paused.” The brief report mentions the word “tariff” a dozen times, and includes an explanation of how “stacking tariffs” could send some prices even higher. On the subject of coffee, it notes that Vietnam is the second largest producer of coffee beans after Brazil, and that many American coffee producers buy their beans from there. However, a possible 46 per cent tariff on Vietnamese imports could raise costs, as could a further 25 per cent tariff on goods entering Canada from the U.S. “As a result,” it notes, “every $1 spent on coffee previously could conceptually cost as much as $1.82 after tariffs.”

The chart from Loblaw shows year over year (YOY) and quarter over quarter (QOQ) price changes for various goods.

More generally, it says, “tariffs continue to impact inflation, challenging key sectors and lowering consumer confidence. While the impact of Canada’s counter tariffs was minimal on food prices in March, as retailers sell through existing inventories higher prices will begin appearing on shelf.” Things are not great in the meat aisle either. “Pork prices have been rising with demand over the past few months,” the report states, adding: “Chicken remains high after ongoing supply challenges, and the beef herd is the smallest since the 1970s due to drought conditions and rising feed prices.” As a result, beef prices have risen 17.3 per cent in the last quarter, while chicken breasts are up 25 per cent, and pork trim 36.5 per cent. The one item of good news is on the olive oil front, where Loblaw reports that prices are down by almost half (46.9 per cent) from a year ago, with a drop of 3.2 per cent in the last quarter. The so-called “liquid gold” had hit record highs and even spurred a crime wave last year thanks to two years of bad weather and poor harvests in Europe. With the most recent crop in better shape, prices have dropped again.

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