What's next for Canada's newest minority government?

With the election count all but finalized , it looks as though the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney will be forming a minority government. Here’s what that means for the party and the country. What is a minority government? It’s simply a government in which no party holds more than 50 per cent of the seats in Parliament. The magic number in this case is 172, but the Liberals, who went into the election with 152 seats, emerged with 169, three short of a majority. Thus, any piece of legislation will require some opposition votes, in addition to all the Liberal members of Parliament. Can they do that? Yes, they can. Akaash Maharaj, a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, points out that Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet has already said he does not intend to bring down the current government “for at least a year.” “That was a remarkable thing for him to say, because he played his hand and gave up any influence he might have to try to extract things from Carney,” said Maharaj. “But it does mean that Carney can, in all probability, govern as if he had a majority for the first year. After that, especially once there is a new leader for the NDP, and the provincial elections in Quebec start to put pressure on the Bloc Québécois, the dynamics will change.” What power do the other parties have? The New Democratic Party, thanks to its poor showing in the election — just seven seats, a loss of official party status , and the announced resignation of its leader, Jagmeet Singh — has little power and even less desire to rock the boat and potentially trigger another election. But the Conservatives, despite their 144 seats in the House of Commons, are in a somewhat weakened position as well. “They are likely to find themselves without any dance partners in the political ballet of Parliament,” said Maharaj. “Having said that, I don’t think that they are powerless. More than 41 per cent of Canadians voted for them, and that suggests a significant hold on the public imagination. Conservatives will retain the power to influence public sentiment (and) to hold the government to account.” He added: “One of the dynamics that I observed in this campaign is that, when the subjects of discussion in the public debate were issues like affordability, the housing crisis, the gap between rich and poor, whether people have hope for the future — all those issues favoured the Conservative Party. The Liberals stormed to victory because of the one issue that favoured them, and that is who is best placed to defend Canadian interests against the predatory government in the United States. “That will remain a significant issue for the life of this Parliament, but all those other issues, the bread-and-butter issues, will continue to gnaw at Canadians. If Carney can answer them, then he will be in a tremendously strong position. But those are really difficult issues to deal with.” How long is the current government likely to last? “If this government follows the path of most previous minority governments, Mark Carney has about two years to win over Canadians,” Maharaj predicted. “It will be a very difficult two years for him.” What is a confidence and supply agreement? This is an arrangement under which a minority government receives the support of one or more parties or MPs on confidence votes and the budget (supply). In 2022, the NDP and the governing Liberals under Justin Trudeau signed such an agreement , with the NDP promising to support the government, and the Liberals pledging to move ahead on a dental care program and other issues. Singh announced the early termination of the agreement on Sept. 4, 2024. Will this government form a confidence and supply agreement? It’s unlikely, since the Bloc has already signalled its intention not to bring down the government, and the NDP no longer has much bargaining power. “To all practical purposes, there is no New Democratic Party in Canada’s Parliament now,” said Maharaj. “There are seven independent MPs who ran under an orange banner.” Are we better off with a minority government? Maharaj said that in many ways we are. “We often … forget that a core part of democracy isn’t just voting for the government, it’s also holding the government to account between elections,” he said. “The role of opposition parties is an important and an honourable one, and a minority government gives those opposition parties the chance to restrain the worst instincts of the government. It also requires opposition parties to act in a more mature fashion.” He explained: “When we have majority governments, opposition parties often collapse into hysteria. Every issue is the end of the world. Every act by a minister or the Prime Minister is the act of a tyrant, and they’re able to catastrophize measures because they hold no responsibility for what happens or what does not happen. In a minority government, the opposition parties have some power and therefore have some responsibility, and there is some pressure on them to behave in a more mature fashion.” In fact, he argued that a “slender majority” can in some ways be worse than an outright minority. “If you have a government that has a one or two seat majority, it puts a dagger in the hand of every disgruntled backbencher, who can threaten to bring down the government if he or she is sufficiently aggrieved.”

• What does it mean for the NDP to lose official party status in Parliament?
• Bloc Québécois leader says he won't 'threaten to overthrow the government anytime soon'

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