Legault Just Keeps Sinking in the Polls

P olls come and go, and seasoned political observers know better than to overreact to a single bad result. But eventually, the numbers stack up, warning signs mount, and the message becomes impossible to ignore. After a turbulent spring session at the National Assembly in Quebec City, a series of polls have made clear that Premier François Legault’s personal popularity has taken a nosedive. The latest data, from Pallas Data and published by L’actualité last week, not only shows the Coalition Avenir Québec at its lowest support level in over a decade—it also suggests Legault himself has become a serious liability to his party. In a survey fielded from June 14 to 16, 2025, Pallas Data asked Quebec voters: “Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of Premier François Legault?” Province wide, 71 percent of respondents hold an unfavourable impression of Legault, including a striking 50 percent holding a “very unfavourable” impression, the highest of any party leader in the province. Only 15 percent of respondents have a favourable impression—a proportion that matches current voting intentions for the CAQ in this poll.

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This produces a net favourability rating of minus fifty-six (favourable minus unfavourable impressions), the worst I have recorded in my analysis of party leaders across the country since launching 338Canada and Qc125 in 2017. For comparison: in January, Abacus Data recorded a minus forty-five rating for Justin Trudeau using a similar question. Even Kathleen Wynne, during the 2018 Ontario election campaign that reduced her Liberals to seven seats at Queen’s Park, didn’t reach such depths. An Ipsos / Global News poll from May 2018 gave the Wynne government a net approval of minus forty. (Granted: approval and favourability are not the same measures, but they are often closely correlated.) A year ago, in June, Pallas measured Legault’s net favourability at minus thirty-seven (60 percent unfavourable, 23 percent favourable). Since then, unfavourable views have climbed eleven points, while favourable ones have dropped eight. Because this shift comes from the same firm using the same methodology and questionnaire, the movement is statistically significant. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}(); Even more striking is how widespread the collapse in support has become. Across every region, the pattern holds: Legault is viewed unfavourably by 71 percent of respondents in Greater Montreal, 74 percent in Quebec City, and 69 percent in the rest of the province. Gender makes no difference—72 percent of men and 69 percent of women view him negatively. The numbers are nearly identical among francophones (70 percent) and non-francophones (73 percent). Even among voters aged sixty-five and over—historically a stronghold for the CAQ—57 percent now report an unfavourable impression. Fair or not, these numbers reflect how utterly broken this once-close relationship between Legault and Quebec voters has become, perhaps (and most likely) beyond repair. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}(); On the eve of the 2022 provincial election, a Léger poll found that 99 percent of CAQ supporters were satisfied with the Legault government. That kind of figure, even factoring in partisan bias, is extremely rare in political polling. Why mention it now? Because in this latest Pallas survey, only 54 percent of current CAQ voters have a favourable view of Legault, while 32 percent now view him unfavourably. This for the man who brought “la troisième voie” party to the promised land with two consecutive majority governments. There are plenty of reasons why voters may have soured on the premier—reasons best left to editorial boards and pundits to dissect. I’ll stick with the numbers. And one of many possible explanations is that Quebecers no longer believe Legault can win. To the question: “A Quebec election is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Regardless of your political preference, which party do you think will win the next Quebec election?,” only 13 percent of respondents picked the CAQ—an option that barely beat “I don’t know.” Province-wide numbers show 42 percent of voters believe the Parti Québécois will be victorious next year, and another 30 percent think it will be the Liberals’ turn to hold the reins of government in Quebec City. The CAQ is simply no longer seen as a force in Quebec politics. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}(); Even among the CAQ’s remaining supporters, belief in victory is waning: just over half (54 percent) still think their party can retain power in next year’s Quebec election. By contrast, 85 percent of Parti Québécois supporters believe Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will lead them back to government. Among Liberal voters, 72 percent say the same about Pablo Rodriguez. (The Liberals, for reference, haven’t lost three consecutive elections since the days of Maurice Duplessis.) !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}(); For Legault, these are end-of-regime numbers. While we know that voter sentiment can shift in unexpected and dramatic ways—look at the federal Liberals—it’s hard to imagine a premier entering his eighth year in office reversing course when 71 percent of voters hold a negative impression of him and when no fewer than four other party leaders enjoy better ratings. The wear and tear of years in power inevitably takes its toll, sooner or later, on any government regardless of its colour. The once-mighty CAQ and once-beloved Legault are on the verge of an electoral wipeout. They have one year to prove the (many) doubters wrong.The post Legault Just Keeps Sinking in the Polls first appeared on The Walrus.