Poilievre Wins By-Election, Prepares for Second Act

For the past several months, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been in an unfamiliar position: on the outside of Parliament Hill looking in. His Conservatives lost a federal election most pundits assumed they would win, and he suffered an upset in his long-held Carleton riding to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, a result few political veterans saw coming. To keep his job as leader of the official opposition, he was forced to run in a by-election in the Alberta Conservative stronghold of Battle River—Crowfoot, a contest he won handily yesterday.

But when Poilievre takes his seat in the Commons this fall, he’ll be returning to a vastly different political environment. A June 24 Nanos Research poll suggested Mark Carney’s Liberals lead Poilievre’s Conservatives 45 to 31 percent. The former is still in his honeymoon phase, so that’s not surprising. Here’s what caught people’s notice: Carney led Poilievre as the preferred choice for prime minister by nearly 29 percent. While Poilievre’s absence from the public eye was likely a contributing factor, a gap of that size can’t be ignored and needs to be swiftly chipped away at.

Can he do it? While most Conservative supporters want Poilievre to remain leader, his critics have pointed to frustration and disgruntlement within the Conservative ranks. It’s been caused by several things, including: four consecutive election losses, the party’s ideological direction or lack thereof, Poilievre’s leadership style, and his protection of former national campaign manager Jenni Byrne. There’s even been a suggestion that Poilievre is “yesterday’s man” and his moment in the sun is over.

I’ve known Poilievre since he was a Reform Party intern. I was one of the first columnists to endorse him just before he declared his leadership campaign. It would be a mistake to write him off now. He’s determined to return to a position where the country looks to him once more as a future prime minister, and there are a few good reasons to think he still can.

• Poilievre Is Parachuting into Rural Alberta to Win Back His Seat
• The Book That Built Pierre Poilievre
• Why Poilievre Is Always Looking for a Fight

To begin, he’s been the underdog before. Remember that, when Poilievre became Conservative leader in September 2022, there were lingering doubts around his ability to defeat Justin Trudeau in a general election. At that point, polls placed the Conservatives only slightly ahead or sometimes even alongside the Liberals. His leadership style was seen as brash and polarizing by opponents and critics, raising questions about whether he could broaden his appeal beyond the Conservative base and win over centrist or swing voters.

But that’s exactly what he did. He knew how to sell his party and political brand to small groups and large, captive audiences. His videos and speeches about affordable housing, cryptocurrency, and reducing the influential hand of “gatekeepers” were things his predecessors largely shied away from. But his tactical approach was to maintain Conservative support with an iron grip and focus on attracting non-traditional constituencies, like young voters and political independents. What some columnists and commentators didn’t like was that he sounded like an ideologue and, at times, a pit bull. Even so, he was an excellent communicator who could come up with witty remarks and savage descriptions on the fly.

Those political gifts, in large part, helped Conservatives outperform Trudeau’s Liberals in the polls for over two years. The gap extended to seven points by September 2023. It turned into an incredible nineteen-point lead by February 2024. If Trudeau hadn’t signed a supply and confidence agreement with Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party to protect his minority government, he likely would have been out of the office much sooner.

We know what ultimately happened. Within a month of US president Donald Trump’s election and his trade war on Canada, the massive Conservative lead disintegrated and the party went into free fall. In my estimation, that result was less a verdict on Poilievre than the outcome of a political storm that no one could contain. The objectivity of the Canadian electorate had largely been trumped—and Trumped—by the subjective analysis of one specific issue: the tariff battle.

The skills Poilievre used to surge in the polls can help him surge again. Appealing to “red meat” conservatives and the party faithful is important, but building a far-reaching political movement in a country that’s voted Liberal for nearly 60 percent of its history is extraordinary. It’s how you survive in politics—and thrive in a challenging political environment.

That political environment has become even more challenging for Poilievre, but the fundamentals are still on his side. In some ways, his message strikes more directly at Carney than it did Trudeau. Coming from a modest middle-class background of Prairie pragmatism, Poilievre is better positioned than a globe-trotting central banker to cast himself as someone who understands the economic hardships of Canadian families. Compared to a man with an extensive career in global finance, including richly paid senior roles at Goldman Sachs, Brookfield Asset Management, and Bloomberg, Poilievre can argue he is more attuned to voters who struggle to put food on the table, to cover the high costs of rent, mortgages, and utilities, and who worry about what their next cheque would look like—or whether it will show up at all.

Moreover, next to Poilievre’s instinct for public performance, Carney’s aloof leadership style will be harder to ignore. Carney’s lack of experience in politics might become clearer too.

Many Canadians felt Poilievre and the Conservatives resided on the other side of the Trumpian coin. But Poilievre now, away from the high-stakes fray of an election run, has a lot of opportunity to show that he and Trump have different policies and personalities. The president himself suggested as much. “I think his biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he’s really not . . . a Trump guy at all,” he told the UK-based The Spectator on February 28. He said to Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on March 19 that Poilievre is “stupidly no friend of mine,” and “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal.”

It’s also worth considering Trump’s April 30 assessment of the election. “They both hated Trump, and it was the one that hated Trump I think the least that won. I actually think the conservative hated me much more than the so-called liberal. He’s a pretty liberal guy.”

For the record, Poilievre and his team did push back against Trump on multiple occasions. The Conservative leader rejected the “unjustified and unprovoked tariffs that President Trump has now announced against our auto sector” on March 26, for instance, believing they “will damage his workers and his economy, just as they will damage ours. We must retaliate and target goods and services that we don’t need, can buy elsewhere, or make ourselves to maximize the impact on the Americans while minimizing the impact on ourselves.” But enough of the electorate had already made up its mind about the Conservative and Liberal campaigns.

Carney was ultimately kept to a minority government, albeit much larger than Trudeau’s previous two minorities. As for Poilievre, he lost his seat, but for all those headwinds, he led the Conservatives to their best showing since Brian Mulroney in 1988. He’s hardly starting from scratch.

Poilievre is returning to Ottawa, but the concerns about his leadership style and political team haven’t gone away. Conservatives are tired of losing elections and sitting on the opposition benches. What can he do to rebuild the momentum he needs to win in the next election cycle? Here are a few ideas.

First, Poilievre should stick to what he does best: delivering crisp, pointed critiques of Liberal policies. It’s a strategy he’s honed over the years. There may be a semi-theatrical component to it—the world of politics is a stage, after all—but when paired with clear-eyed attention to hard data and economic realities, it can be remarkably effective.

Inside Parliament, he needs to go after Carney’s $486 billion spending plan—light on details for now but likely to grow as campaign promises pile up. It’s not a stretch to link it to Trudeau’s record of fiscal excess, or to argue that it’s wildly out of sync with the financial pressure Canadians are feeling, from mounting personal debt to rising food bank use. A recent Léger poll commissioned by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation found that 65 percent of respondents don’t buy Carney’s promise to balance the budget in three years. If economic conditions don’t improve fast, that doubt could harden into broader distrust of the Liberal government.

Indeed, Poilievre may have no shortage of ammunition. A July 3 Abacus Data poll flagged two clear “danger signs”: only 32 percent of Canadians think the government is on track on affordability, and just 30 percent say the same about housing. More than half believe Ottawa “is making less progress than expected or hasn’t even started on either of these.” That’s exactly the kind of opening Poilievre can exploit when Parliament resumes. Carney may offer a different tone than Trudeau, but if he clings to the same policies that helped bring the former prime minister down, he risks inheriting the same backlash.

Poilievre also recently targeted Carney’s investment disclosure to the ethics commissioner by suggesting he made “false statements” about not knowing what would be in the blind trust that holds these assets. This will help highlight the twin issues of honesty and transparency in Carney’s leadership. At the same time, it will shine a spotlight on his wealth and stature and how different he is than middle-class Canadians.

Carney is extremely vulnerable in that regard—far more so than Trudeau ever was. It’s not clear that he has developed the natural political skills to properly deflect such attacks. Poilievre can easily build the case that Carney doesn’t understand the needs of average Canadians like he does, and that Carney is completely aligned with the elites Poilievre has consistently and successfully criticized as Conservative leader.

Outside Parliament, Poilievre needs to reconnect with Canadians during the summer BBQ circuit and beyond. Building ties in his new riding is important, but he also has to re-energize a somewhat disappointed Conservative base and win back support from non-traditional constituencies. That means meeting with younger voters and millennials who were drawn to his original message of offering an alternative to the “broken promises” of the Liberals, rebuilding his footing in working-class Ontario ridings tied to industries like auto manufacturing, and strengthening ties with Atlantic Canadians who backed the Conservatives in greater numbers this year.

And while the party remains strong in Western Canada, he can’t take that support for granted—he’ll need to show he’s ready to champion the region by advancing pipelines, defending the oil sands, and ensuring their priorities are heard and acted on. Reassuring separatists that national unity won’t come at their expense will be key to holding the coalition together.

Third, Poilievre has to prove without a shadow of a doubt that he’s not a Canadian-style Trump. There can’t be any significant comparisons that stick out in the next election, or political lightning could potentially strike twice.

One way to distance himself is by showing he can succeed where Carney stumbles—especially on trade. On that front, Carney has already shown weakness. He has acknowledged that “there is not much evidence at the moment—from the deals, agreements and negotiations with the Americans, for any country or any jurisdiction—to get a deal without tariffs.”

If the Liberals’ elbows-up approach goes belly up, they risk handing Poilievre a clear opening to make his case. Poilievre will have room to argue he’d take a tougher, more pragmatic approach toward Trump. By pointing to stalled progress and familiar tactics, Poilievre can frame himself as the leader willing to rethink trade strategy, defend key industries like autos and softwood lumber, and take on supply management in the name of lower prices and increased competition. If the US proves an unreliable partner again, Poilievre’s message—that it’s time to build up domestic markets and expand trade beyond the US—will only grow stronger.

More broadly, every policy shortfall under Carney becomes a chance for contrast. If promises go unmet, if old problems linger under a new face, Poilievre won’t hesitate to say “Same team, same results.” Poilievre is a political survivor who knows how to turn frustration into momentum, and he’ll use those instincts to full effect in Ottawa. Yesterday’s man still has many more days in him.