Most Canadians think Trump would break any new trade deal: poll

On Friday, the Canadian government launched public consultations into the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) that is set for a joint review next year. But a new poll shows that a majority of Canadians don’t expect the U.S. president to respect any deal made between his country and ours.

The latest Trump Tracker survey by research firm Pollera asked 2,712 adult Canadians for their opinions on a number of political questions. One of those: “If Canada and the United States sign a new trade agreement in the coming months, how likely do you feel it is that President Trump will respect the agreement?”

Only seven per cent of Canadians said he definitely would respect a new deal, while 18 per cent said he likely would. A much larger portion of respondents were doubtful, with 35 per cent saying Trump would likely break any agreement, and 30 per cent saying he would definitely do so. Just 11 per cent said they didn’t know.

Liberal voters were more likely to predict that Trump would break a deal (74 per cent) compared to Conservatives (51 per cent), but no group had a majority that trusted the U.S. president.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the poll also showed that negative feelings about our neighbours to the south continue to grow. When asked: “What is your overall impression of the United States?” almost half (44 per cent) said their feelings were very negative, while a further 26 per cent said they were somewhat negative. Only 18 per cent chose somewhat positive, and a tiny fraction — just five per cent — went with very positive.

These numbers were the most negative in more than a year of tracking. A February poll found 41 per cent of Canadians held a very negative view of the United States, while a January poll showed only 34 per cent, and a December poll came back with 31 per cent.

In June of 2024, only 12 per cent reported very negative feelings, while more than half (53 per cent) said they felt somewhat or very positive about our nearest neighbours.

The newest poll also found that Quebecers were the likeliest to report negative feelings about the U.S. (78 per cent), as were seniors at 86 per cent.

Pollera also asked Canadians what, if anything, they were doing about those feelings — more specifically as a response to U.S. tariffs — and found that almost three-quarters (73 per cent) had taken one or more personal actions against the United States.

Most common at 52 per cent was to boycott some or all American products in grocery stores, while 38 per cent said they were boycotting non-grocery items from the U.S., and 36 per cent were delaying or cancelling travel south of the border. (The numbers add up to more than 100 per cent because some people chose more than one answer.)

Smaller numbers said they had reduced their investments in U.S. companies (13 per cent) or bought clothing to show Canadian pride (10 per cent). Just 27 per cent answered “none of the above.” The poll also found that Albertans were the least likely to have done something to protest tariffs (66 per cent), while Manitobans and Quebecers were most likely, at 77 per cent and 76 per cent, respectively.

Because the poll was conducted online, it cannot be given a margin of error, but Pollera said a sample of this size would normally have a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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