Canadians should not expect tariff deal as Carney travels to Washington

OTTAWA — As Prime Minister Mark Carney has often said, when it comes to his conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadians should not expect to see “white smoke.”

The “white smoke” he refers to is the long-sought-after deal he has been trying to negotiate to gain reprieve from the president’s tariffs, something that remains elusive as the prime minister departs Monday for another sit-down with the president.

A senior official, who spoke to National Post on a not-for-attribution basis, emphasized that the trip is more of a working meeting for both sides to sort out the specific issues before them, rather than an imminent announcement of a breakthrough or deal.

That means businesses and Canadians waiting for one are likely to have to keep waiting.

Carney’s government is dealing with higher steel and aluminum tariffs than when he entered office, with two summer deadlines come and gone. So far, expectations are being kept low for the prime minister’s latest meeting with the president.

The official said that no specific expectations are being attached to the trip, but that Canada views it more as an opportunity for both sides to have honest conversations behind closed doors, which only an in-person meeting can allow.

This week’s meeting will be the third official meeting Carney has had with Trump since he won the April federal election. His first trip to the White House was back in May, followed by a sit-down when Canada hosted the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alta.

Both leaders also attended the UN General Assembly in New York last month.

Travelling with Carney will be Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who has served as his cabinet presence around the negotiating table, along with Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand.

Carney is expected to sit down for a meeting with Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday and attend a working meeting with his U.S counterpart and other ministers.

A motivating factor for the trip, according to the official, was to have face time with the president and his team as both countries approach the starting line of what will be a critical review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement, set for 2026.

Both Canada and the U.S. have launched their respective consultations on the deal, which is set to undergo its first joint review since it was inked in 2020, during Trump’s first term in office.

Carney recently met with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum during a trip to Mexico City last month, which offered similar face time to discuss reviewing the deal.

That agreement is what the prime minister points to as being the key to having what he refers to as the “best” situation of all the countries grappling with U.S. tariffs, given the fact that products covered by it are currently exempt, which equates to roughly 85 per cent of goods travelling across the Canada-U.S. boundary tariff-free.

The Canadian side is heading into its talks in Washington armed with a message about the importance of maintaining that deal.

As for Canadian sectors still feeling the brunt of tariffs, such as steel and aluminum, which remain subject to a 50 per cent levy under Section 232 of its U.S. Trade Expansion Act, as well as softwood lumber, which the Trump administration recently hit with a new 10 per cent tariff, the Carney government has focused on securing some sectoral reprieve.

Tariffs also remain on auto parts not in compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement, as well as on copper.

Speaking to National Post after a Senate committee appearance last week , LeBlanc said Canada was open to either striking a deal specific to those sectors still subject to tariffs or pursuing a broader arrangement.

“Both tracks are still in discussions,” LeBlanc said at the time. He also declined to say which option was more likely, but said it could also involve critical minerals, defence and energy security. 

With no signs of a tariff deal, Carney is facing increasing pressure from Opposition Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who last week posted to X that the prime minister entered office on the promise of striking a deal with the president.

“No word on where the prime minister’s elbows have gone after he backed down again and again with nothing to show for it,” Poilievre wrote.

-With files from Simon Tuck

National Post

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