Two-thirds of Canadians say new U.S. trade deal crucial for jobs, economy

OTTAWA — A new national poll finds that most Canadians see securing a new trade deal with the U.S. as crucial for domestic jobs and economic growth.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI), shows that cross-border relations is a top-of-mind concern for Canadians, as the national economy falters under the weight of tariffs .

“Canadians correctly recognize that our economy and that of the United States are closely linked, and they want this trade relationship to continue,” said Daniel Dufort, the president and CEO at the MEI. “Despite calls to strengthen the domestic market, Canadians understand that maintaining our access to a market of 340 million people ensures significantly greater prosperity.”

Sixty-eight per cent of respondents said that failing to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. carried “a significant risk of negative impact on employment in Canada.” A near-identical 67 per cent said a strong cross-border trade deal is “vital for Canada’s economic growth.”

More than six in 10 respondents in all regions of Canada said that a Canada-U.S. trade deal was critical for jobs and the economy, with those in Ontario and Atlantic Canada most vehemently in favour.

An additional two-thirds said they considered economic relations with the U.S. to be “highly important” for Canada’s economy.

Six in 10 said that signing a new trade agreement with the U.S. should be a top priority for federal officials.

Sean Simpson, a senior vice president at Ipsos, said the findings speak to the increasing pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney to seal the deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“I think (Carney) realizes that he’s not going to be able to govern for very long if we continue to have slumping job numbers and more quarters of negative growth,” said Simpson.

Carney was criticized by the Opposition last week after returning from a visit to Washington, D.C. without a trade deal in hand . Trump has recently inked deals with the U.K. and EU.

Simpson added that the poll results also show that Canadians are adopting more modest expectations for the deepening of trade ties with markets outside of the U.S.

“I think what Canadians are starting to realize is some of that stuff is tinkering in the margins. Like, is it better to diversify to Europe and other markets? Absolutely. Should we be reducing interprovincial trade barriers? Absolutely. All of these have a have an impact on the economy, none of which even come close to the impact of American trade,” said Simpson.

He pointed to the evolving conversation around the Keystone XL pipeline, which would generate substantial national revenue while deepening trade ties with the U.S., as one example of this shift in tone.

The U.S. accounts for roughly two-thirds of Canada’s total international trade, with a quarter of national GDP tied up in cross-border commerce.

Simpsons said that two factors working in Carney’s favour are that he’s still relatively new to the job, and he continues to hold a personal edge over Opposition Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

“For the time being and likely through into the early part of next year, (Carney) still has the benefit of the doubt of Canadians,” said Simpson.

A formal review of Canada’s trilateral trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico is set for next summer.

The Ipsos poll was conducted online between Sept. 29 and Oct. 1, using a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older. Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Post rmohamed@postmedia.com

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