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With a rising threat of separatism in Quebec, Carney's Liberals don't have a strategy yet
OTTAWA — As Canada prepares to enter 2026 which could see the Parti Québécois (PQ) take power in Quebec and enact its promise of a third referendum, it remains unclear what, if anything, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government intends to do about it.
The PQ has been riding high in the polls in Quebec for the past two years and could aspire to form a majority government after the October election. Its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has vowed to hold a referendum in his first mandate — before 2030.
Liberal sources told the National Post that former Quebec lieutenant Steven Guilbeault had started to map out a federal strategy to respond to the PQ, but it was very early stages.
“He was starting to see what their posture should be. Should they have some messages? Should they make some (media) appearances? If so, what kind of appearances? So, he was still at the beginning of the elaboration of a strategy,” said one source.
But Guilbeault resigned from his cabinet positions in late November, including his role as Quebec lieutenant. A spokesperson for his office said he was unavailable for an interview.
His successor, Joël Lightbound, is expected to settle into his role in the new year and to take the lead on all things Quebec — including the PQ. A spokesperson for Lightbound also refused an interview, citing a lack of time.
But sources described Lightbound as having a more “discreet” approach, not one that would be outright confrontational and could direct too much attention toward Ottawa.
Jonathan Kalles, who served as Quebec adviser to then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and is now a vice president at McMillan Vantage, said Carney’s team will need to figure out who are his main spokespeople in terms of responding to the PQ.
“Most important, that it be coordinated and not individual ministers or members making comments without being part of a larger plan,” he warned.
Back in November, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly accused the PQ leader of wanting to throw Quebec “into the arms of Donald Trump” after he called for a “closer relationship” with the United States if Quebec were to become an independent country.
Quebec Liberal MP Angelo Iacono went even further a day later, claiming that an independent Quebec would be at risk of being invaded by the U.S.
Kalles said there will also be moments when St-Pierre Plamondon might say or do things that could damage his electoral chances, and the federal government “would be wise to pick and choose the moments when to respond and when not to respond.”
One of those moments was when St-Pierre Plamondon called out the cultural sector in the province as being “disloyal” to Quebec after some of them congratulated Marc Miller’s appointment as federal culture minister. The PQ leader ultimately apologized for his comments.
The PQ subsequently dropped four points in a Léger-Québecor poll — from 39 per cent of decided voters to 35 — despite the Quebec Liberal Party being embroiled in scandal.
“That’s clearly a result of people reacting to (St-Pierre Plamondon)’s attacks on the cultural milieu, which were over the top and ridiculous,” said Kalles.
Michel Breau, associate vice president at the Wellington Dupont Public Affairs, said Carney’s team would be wise to weigh their efforts made to alleviate the threat of Western alienation versus the real threat of Quebec electing a separatist government in 2026.
“There’s already been stretches of time when the Quebec government felt it was prepared to suddenly run an independent country’s government. That isn’t the case in Alberta,” he said.
Breau, who worked for Quebec Liberal ministers for a decade, said events such as Guilbeault’s departure from cabinet because of the Alberta MOU and naming investment banker Mark Wiseman as ambassador to the U.S. despite Quebec opposition could eventually add up.
“You can start to have a little bit of a drip, drip, drip, in terms of stuff that seeps a little bit, I think, into the woodwork of, does Mark Carney really get Quebec?”
The federal government is not “blind” to the fact that the PQ is leading in the polls in Quebec at the moment, said one source close to Carney’s thinking speaking on a not-for-attribution basis.
However, they remain convinced that the Quebec election is “anybody’s game” — pointing to the unpredictable turn of events at the federal level in 2025. They also said that the uncertainty around the CUSMA review in 2026 could sway Quebecers to stay within Canada.
In any case, the federal public service is likely quietly working in the background to prepare for all scenarios — including a majority PQ win.
In an interview, former clerk of the Privy Council Michael Wernick said he thinks “pretty soon, it would be time to start doing that quiet prep work.”
“The prime minister’s focus is going to be pulled mostly to Canada-U.S. stuff and trade and security and building those houses and infrastructure projects and all that kind of stuff. So, this could become quite a drain of focus and attention,” he said.
Wernick, who was assistant deputy minister at the department now known as Intergovernmental Affairs during the 1995 referendum, said the federal government will “always have to find a working relationship with the federalists within Quebec.”
For now, the whiff of scandal has cast a chill between Liberals in Ottawa and Quebec City.
Publicly, most federal Liberals are steering clear of provincial politics — seeing that their former colleague, Pablo Rodriguez, recently resigned as leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec after facing a criminal investigation by the province’s anti-corruption police.
At an unrelated announcement on Dec. 16, Lightbound even contradicted a reporter for suggesting the Liberal parties of Canada and Quebec were somewhat related.
“It is neither the little brother nor the big brother. There is no connection between both parties, and there hasn’t been a connection for decades,” he said.
Privately, the federal Liberals are keeping a close eye on the person who could succeed Rodriguez as leader of the provincial party: Charles Milliard, former head of the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce.
Philippe J. Fournier, founder of the polling aggregator website Qc125 , said that while Milliard has no political experience, it might work in his favour against political opponents who might struggle to find ways to undermine him or uncover “skeletons in the closet.”
Even though the PQ has been steadily polling in first place, Fournier predicts it is too early to tell what might happen come October given how divided the Quebec electorate is.
“There is no precedent. … So, I believe it is completely unpredictable, even if the PQ is the favourite,” he said.
National Post calevesque@postmedia.com
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