Most Quebecers Oppose Sovereignty. Even More Reject Another Referendum

Quebec polls in recent years—decades, even—have consistently shown that if a referendum on sovereignty were held today, a clear majority of voters would vote against it.

Is that certainty misleading? There are indications, after all, that the Parti Québécois’ rising popularity since 2023 coincided with renewed enthusiasm among independence supporters. Support for the PQ increased after its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, pledged, in 2023, to hold a third referendum on sovereignty at the same time as the governing Coalition Avenir Québec began to falter.

Many CAQ supporters have long been sympathetic to sovereignty but were willing to set that preference aside to back a party that prioritized Quebec’s autonomy within Canada rather than outright independence. With the sovereignty question now back on the front burner, some of those voters are back in play for the PQ. The data, however, suggests that the overall base of support for sovereignty itself has not grown significantly: it remains solid but still falls well short of a majority of Quebec voters.

In fact, resistance to sovereignty runs deeper than those numbers alone suggest. When voters are asked not only about sovereignty as an abstract question but about the prospect of holding a referendum during the first mandate of a PQ government, opposition hardens sharply and spreads across virtually every demographic group.

Today, we release the second part of the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data, commissioned by 338Canada and The Walrus. The survey was conducted January 9–10, 2026, among a random sample of 1,128 Quebec voters.

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Let us begin with the classic top-line question before moving into more granular results. When asked, “If a referendum were held on Quebec sovereignty, would you vote for or against Quebec sovereignty?” 54 percent of respondents say they would vote against sovereignty, while 35 percent say they would vote in favour. Another 10 percent remain unsure (the numbers don’t add up to 100 percent due to rounding).

These figures align closely with averages measured over the past several months—and even years—pointing to a remarkably stable landscape on the sovereignty question. The chart below shows the results of every Quebec Pallas Data poll over the past two years.

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One small but notable shift nonetheless stands out. Before November 2024, Pallas measured support for sovereignty at or near the 40 percent mark. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, with his threats against Canada, support has consistently dropped to the 32–35 percent range in every Pallas survey. The decline is modest but statistically significant.

Breaking the results down by demographic groups underscores how steep a hill the PQ would need to climb should it form the next government. Support for sovereignty trails among both men and women and across all age groups. Even among Quebec’s francophone majority, the party’s core constituency, the numbers remain unfavourable: 45 percent would vote against sovereignty, 42 percent would vote in favour, and 12 percent are undecided—not nearly enough to form a winning “Yes” coalition, considering support for sovereignty must be at 60 percent or above among francophones to have any shot at passing the 50 percent mark across the province.

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The survey then probed how solid voters’ positions are. Respondents were asked whether their vote in a hypothetical referendum was “decided and final” or whether they “could still change their mind.” Excluding undecided respondents, more than 80 percent said their decision was firm.

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Fully 44 percent of respondents say their “No” vote is decided and final, compared with 30 percent of supporters who say the same about a “Yes” vote. Only a small share on either side report being open to persuasion. In a race to 50 percent, one side effectively starts at 44 percent, while the other lines up at 30 percent and hopes to catch up.

Put differently, opposition to sovereignty is not only larger, it is also more entrenched. Even if every undecided voter—sitting at 10 percent in the Pallas poll—were persuaded to support sovereignty, the Yes side would still fall short.

This does not mean that public opinion cannot shift during a campaign. Quebec’s recent political history offers ample reason to be cautious about assuming stability. The 2011 federal election saw a sudden surge toward the New Democratic Party; the 2014 provincial campaign broke late for the Liberals; the 2015 federal race, again, swung decisively in the Liberals’ favour; the 2018 provincial election produced the CAQ’s first wave, after a period when the party was running close to the Quebec Liberal Party until it suddenly wasn’t; and the 2025 federal election delivered yet another late Liberal shift. Taken together, these episodes underscore how volatile Quebec electorates can be—and illustrate the significant headwinds facing the PQ’s referendum promise.

That distinction becomes even clearer when voters are asked whether a PQ government should hold a referendum at all. Respondents were asked, “Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has said that, should the PQ win the next Quebec election, his government would hold a referendum on sovereignty during its first mandate. Are you favourable or unfavourable to this idea?”

Quebecers responded decisively. Among the full sample, 62 percent say they are unfavourable, including 46 percent who are very unfavourable—the single largest response category. Just 32 percent are favourable, and only 17 percent say they are very favourable.

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Unlike the still hypothetical Yes/No sovereignty question, this is a result on which opinions are not only negative but intensely so.

That opposition is also remarkably broad. When broken down by gender, age, and language, no demographic group reaches the 50 percent threshold in favour of holding a referendum. Younger voters are less opposed than older ones, but opposition remains the majority position across all age groups. Even among francophones, resistance is substantial: 57 percent oppose holding a referendum, compared with 37 percent who support the idea.

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Taken together, these results suggest that Quebecers distinguish clearly between sovereignty as a long-term political aspiration and the act of holding a referendum in the near future. While many voters may tolerate ambiguity on the former, there is far less appetite for the latter.

This poses a strategic challenge for the PQ as Quebec enters an election year. The party currently leads its rivals in voting intentions and dominates among francophone voters, but it also benefits from a fragmented opposition. A campaign explicitly centred on sovereignty—and especially on a first-mandate referendum—could risk shrinking the party’s coalition rather than expanding it.

It is also worth noting that this poll was fielded just days before Premier François Legault announced his resignation. Whether voters may have parked their support with the PQ primarily to oppose the CAQ is an open question.

The CAQ’s victory in 2018 pushed the national question into dormancy, but it never disappeared. The CAQ’s decline and the PQ’s rise have brought it back to the forefront. For now, however, the data suggests that not only are most Quebecers not warming to sovereignty—most would rather not even be asked.

We shall follow these numbers closely throughout the year, leading up to the October 5 election.

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This Pallas Data poll was conducted on January 9 and 10, 2026, among a random sample of 1,128 Quebec respondents aged eighteen and over. The data was collected by interactive voice response using telephone calls to landlines and cell phones. The survey was commissioned by Qc125. The margin of error for the entire sample is ± 2.9 percent, nineteen times out of twenty. You can find the survey report here.