The Undeclared Civil War Inside Poilievre’s Conservative Party

We’re now well past the Conservative Party’s convention. As you might have noticed, Pierre Poilievre, his caucus, and every Conservative with a social media account have been very happy to point out that Poilievre received 87.4 percent approval in his leadership review. With that, combined with Harperpalooza taking over Ottawa, the message is clear: the party is UNITED.

I wasn’t surprised by the result. I’m a pollster by trade, and my team didn’t see any organizing against Poilievre. As my polling from the fall showed, most of the party’s voters don’t have a personal problem with Poilievre, even if four in ten CPC voters believed, at the time, that the party would be more likely to win without Poilievre as leader. However, no one was willing to drive that argument.

Until further evidence to the contrary, I’ll believe that the party and caucus are united behind Poilievre. But for the past year, particularly in the past few months, I’ve been watching a different type of division among conservatives: the battle of some mainstream (Stephen Harper-era) Conservatives versus the Twittered Right™, my term for the hyper-online, Donald Trump/convoy/anti-vax/separatist-y contingent of the Conservative base. Depending on how you define it, this group makes up 20 to 30 percent of Conservative voters, but feels like 90 percent of my algorithm on Elon Musk’s Twitter. Man, that place is unpleasant.

If this group represents only 20 to 30 percent of the 35 to 40 percent of Canadians who plan to vote CPC, why do they matter? Well, for one, they’re energized and take up a lot of space in the conversation, especially on social media; and, two, these are the people who could be tempted by Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party under the right conditions. In a polarized environment where the New Democratic Party is weak and Poilievre has high unfavourables, the CPC needs these voters.

So that brings me to former Alberta premier Jason Kenney. I started noticing something interesting, about a year ago, when Kenney appeared on the Paul Wells podcast (RIP, the podcast, not Paul Wells). In that interview, he spoke candidly about right-wing extremism and online spaces. This was notable because—especially before the last election—I’d never heard mainstream Conservatives admit that right-wing misinformation even existed, much less push back against it. As I’ve written before, I think Poilievre has been not only too permissive of this group but also an active contributor to misinformation to the detriment of his broader appeal.

I’ve since noticed folks like James Moore (former Harper cabinet minister), Dimitris Soudas (former Harper director of communications), and a few others here and there be not necessarily antagonistic toward this group of voters, but they assert their values in a way that feels very not of this era.

Of course, they’re not seeking public office, and the Twittered Right is also at least partially responsible for the end/pause of Kenney’s political career in 2022 due to constant online outrage and ideological policing, so the stakes are entirely different. But I’ve seen them speak out on Trump, separatism, and online toxicity more generally in a way that’s pretty brave (see note on X being miserable) and politically astute (because it’s more in line with broad public opinion).

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In my polling, 24 percent of Conservative voters say they are on Twitter/X. This compares to 70 percent who are on YouTube, 69 percent on Facebook, 45 percent on Instagram, and 30 percent on TikTok. While the Conservatives are extremely competent at leveraging the Meta platforms and have a huge strategic advantage over other parties on YouTube, Twitter still seems to take up an inordinate amount of time for some members of Parliament, given its reach.

All platforms foster echo chambers. As a citizen, it’s deeply alarming. As a consumer, I’ve never been more entertained, so I guess there’s that. But my polling finds some very fun ways that conservatives on Twitter differ from those who aren’t. This is a good juncture to point out correlation does not equal causation. Just because opinions are different doesn’t mean Twitter/X is necessarily the cause.

Starting with domestic conservatives: CPC voters on Twitter are more likely than those not on the platform to have favourable impressions of Poilievre (plus ten) and Alberta premier Danielle Smith (plus eighteen). However, they have a much worse impression of Doug Ford and actually have a net-negative evaluation of the Ontario premier (negative seven). Conservatives not on Twitter tend to like Ford or have a neutral impression of him.

Looking at Liberals, evaluations of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vary little among those who are and are not on Twitter, but Conservative Twitter shows much more animosity toward Prime Minister Mark Carney (57 percent very unfavourable, compared to 44 percent of CPC voters not on Twitter).

One of the most—maybe not surprising, but validating—findings is the difference re: Trump. Conservatives not on Twitter (again, three-quarters of their vote) are vastly more likely to have a very unfavourable impression of Trump (48 percent, versus 27 percent on Twitter). Those on Twitter are quite divided; 41 percent have a favourable view, and 45 percent have an unfavourable view of Trump.

The Russian government has effectively leveraged social media, particularly Twitter/X, for its misinformation campaigns, and this seems to be reflected in the data. While conservatives on X do have more negative than positive views of Russian president Vladimir Putin, his “very unfavourables” are much lower (44 percent versus 56 percent). The more significant impact is on impressions of Ukranian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Conservatives on Twitter are much less likely to have a favourable impression of the leader (17 percent versus 26 percent) and are dramatically more likely to have an unfavourable view of him (48 percent versus 28 percent, including 36 percent with a very unfavourable impression). This trend exists not just among conservatives but also among the general population.

If you’ve made it this far, you’ve gotten the gist of my argument: Elon Musk’s Twitter sucks. More than ever, it caters to those with the harshest views and tone. Social media used to be described as “not real.” That’s not a view I share. Rather, we’re all in different but very real realities. It’s why personal conviction is important in politics.

The decision in front of Poilievre’s Conservatives is this: Do they continue to prioritize the people and platforms who are already most engaged, or do they focus on voters with more moderate views? Or will they, like Kenney, fight back against the former to side with the latter? Given Poilievre’s past strategic choices, it seems extremely unlikely. Either way, I’ll be Twitter-lurking with morbid curiosity.

Originally published as “Jason Kenney and the Twittered Right” by Kyla Ronellenfitsch (Substack). Reprinted with permission of the author.