Committees move to adopt updated growth projections for Ottawa

In a joint meeting today, the Planning and Housing and the Agriculture and Rural Affairs committees recommended that Council adopt updated population, household and employment projections to 2051. The projections will serve as the demographic and economic foundation for updating Ottawa’s Growth Management Strategy as part of the ongoing Official Plan update.

The Province requires municipalities to use population forecasts from the Ministry of Finance as the basis for long-range planning. Because the Ministry does not provide direct housing or employment projections, the City analyzes how the provincial population estimates translate into local housing and employment needs. 

The updated projections show that Ottawa is entering a prolonged period of sustained growth. Accommodating this growth will require coordinated planning for housing, infrastructure, transportation, employment lands and community services. Key findings include:

• Population: Ottawa will remain one of Ontario’s fastest-growing large cities. The population is projected to increase by about 530,000 residents by 2051, climbing to 1.68 million from 1.15 million in 2024. Average growth of 19,600 people per year is expected, exceeding historical averages.
• Demographics: Population growth will be driven primarily by migration, particularly international immigration. Ottawa’s age profile will change significantly by 2051, with more older residents. This will increase demand for accessible housing, health care, transit and community services, highlighting the need to support residents at all stages of life.
• Housing: The number of households is projected to grow by six per cent more over the next 25 years than in the previous 25 years. Ottawa is expected to increase from just over 400,000 households in 2021 to nearly 700,000 by 2051, driven by population growth, an aging population, and younger adults forming households later due to housing affordability.
• Employment: Employment in Ottawa is projected to grow significantly with approximately 325,000 jobs expected between 2024 and 2051. Total employment would reach 994,600 jobs by 2051. Ottawa’s growth outlook reflects its continued role as a major economic, institutional, and employment centre with strong regional and national connections. The forecast anticipates relatively low unemployment.

Following Council adoption, the projections will inform a report to update the City’s Growth Management Strategy, which will be considered at a joint committee meeting in April. Once that is approved, staff will analyze whether there is enough land currently within the urban area and villages to house Ottawa’s growing population. If there is not, the City will need to identify and evaluate possible new areas for future development as part of the Official Plan update.

Earlier in the day, the Planning and Housing Committee met separately and approved several Official Plan and zoning amendments that would facilitate new residential developments in Heron Gate, Cyrville and Queenswood Heights.

In Heron Gate, the Committee approved zoning to facilitate development of 160 townhomes northwest of Conroy Road and St. Laurent Boulevard. A small park is also planned. The amendment is needed mainly to lift a cap on the maximum floor space index, and to rezone part of the site facing Walkley Road to facilitate a future development.

In Cyrville, the Committee approved zoning to facilitate development of a 43-unit, four-storey apartment building on Snow Street, east of Cummings Avenue. The site would be rezoned from Residential Third Density to Residential Fourth Density, primarily to allow the site to be used as a low-rise apartment dwelling. Setbacks would also be adjusted to facilitate proposed underground parking and allow more separation from nearby homes. 

In Queenswood Heights, the Committee approved zoning to facilitate development of a 30-unit, three-storey apartment building northwest of Tenth Line Road and des Épinettes Avenue. The amendment would change the zoning from Residential First Density to General Mixed-Use, which permits a wider range of building types. The amendment would also clarify lot lines and provide direction on building height, protect right of way space, and reduce both the required resident parking rate and the required landscape buffer for the parking lot. 

To help address the housing crisis, City Council committed to providing home builders enough opportunities to build 151,000 quality market homes by 2031. The City tracks the progress of residential development in Ottawa and shares that data through an interactive housing approvals dashboard.

Tracking began in January 2023, and between that time and the end of Q2 2025, Council has provided approvals for more than 60,000 new homes. In Q3 and Q4 of 2025, it is estimated this committee provided approvals for another 8,650 new homes, bringing the overall total of dwellings approved since tracking began to more than 68,650. That has put applicants in a position to build roughly 45 per cent of the homes required to meet that 2031 goal. In addition, zoning permissions for significantly more units have been granted through Council’s approval of the new Zoning By-law. 

If Council approves the land-use permissions that the Committee recommended today, applicants will be able to build another 233 new dwellings. Since the start of 2026, it is estimated this Committee has enabled the development of about 313 new dwellings.

City Council will consider the recommendations from today’s meeting on Wednesday, February 25.