Mark your calendar: April 13 looks promising as the day Carney gets his majority

With a fourth defection to the Liberal benches on Wednesday and three byelections called for mid-April, the federal Liberals are likely on the verge of a parliamentary majority.

Former NDP member from Nunavut, Lori Idlout , added to the Liberal ranks Wednesday. Victories in two of three April 13 byelections will secure a razor-thin Liberal majority government of 172 seats.

If the Liberals win the third byelection in Terrebonne, Quebec, it will provide a small cushion, with 173 seats in the House.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the three byelections in a statement from the PMO on March 8. There are two Toronto-area ridings at stake: Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale. The third is in Montreal: the riding of Terrebonne.

Former Liberal MP Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned her seat in early January to take up a new post as economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, leaving University—Rosedale vacant. Dr. Danielle Martin, a family physician and health‑care advocate is running for the Liberals to replace Freeland.

Bill Blair, also a former Liberal MP and minister of national defence, left the riding of Scarborough Southwest vacant, when he was appointed Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Doly Begum, the former Ontario NDP deputy leader recently joined the Liberals and will run for Blair’s seat.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court of Canada nullified the Liberals’ one-vote federal election win in Terrebonne in mid-February, after the Bloc Québécois candidate challenged the results. A supporter complained she tried to vote by mail using a special ballot that wasn’t counted.

Liberal Tatiana Auguste became MP for the riding after she was declared the winner over the Bloc Québécois candidate, but was displaced by the Supreme Court decision. Auguste is running again for the Liberals

Previously, three Conservative MPs — Chris d’Entremont (Nova Scotia), Michael Ma (Ontario) and Matt Jeneroux (Alberta) — crossed the floor to join the Liberals during the last few months. Each defection widened the gap between the government and opposition benches.

The new numbers will carry through to the next federal election, which must occur on or before Oct. 20, 2029, four years after the last general election on April 28, 2025.

Meanwhile, new data from the Angus Reid Institute, released on Wednesday, shows that Canadians are split on whether it would be a good (43 per cent) or bad (39 per cent) thing if the prime minister creates a majority through floor crossing alone.

Canadians are also split on floor crossing. Equal-sized groups believe it should be allowed (43 per cent) and it should be forbidden (43 per cent).

The numbers are largely split along political affiliation, says Angus Reid.

Otherwise, the data shows that only one-in-four (26 per cent) Canadians say an MP that crossed the floor should be allowed to serve out their term under their new party banner.

Instead, 41 per cent prefer for floor-crossers to step down and re-contest their seats in a byelection. One-in-five (22 per cent) say they should serve as an independent until the next election. One-in-ten (11 per cent) believe they should have to vacate their seat.

A majority, even a slim one, may be captivating for the Liberals, but as National Post has previously reported a one-MP majority is not a panacea.

The Speaker of the House of Commons traditionally doesn’t vote as a means of showing impartiality, or only votes to break a tie. But without the vote of the present holder of the office, Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia, a Liberal majority of one still means a deadlock. The Liberals will have 171 votes against a combined opposition vote of the same number, 171. The Liberals can strategize to sway opposition votes their way, as is regularly done in parliamentary politics, but that’s not guaranteed.

Another alluring aspect of a 172-seat majority is the impact on parliamentary committees. At present, the composition for most committees is five Liberals, including the non-voting chair, four Conservatives and one Bloc. That was adopted unanimously by Parliament after the last election. Going forward, the Liberals would have to introduce another motion to change the committee composition to reflect their majority.

Finally, a slim majority would mean there is no margin for error for the Liberal caucus. Members could not miss out on a vote.

It also could change the power dynamic, as individual Liberal MPs would gain leverage, potentially allowing them to threaten to withhold their vote or vote against a bill, unless they are granted concessions.

With a newly formed majority, it may be tempting to prorogue the Parliamentary session and start with a fresh one, including a new throne speech. The downside to doing so is the death of all the government bills that presently sit on the order paper. It would mean fighting afresh to get them back to their current stage in a new session. That includes the legislation to implement the the 2025 budget.

• Nunavut MP says 'it wasn't just one thing' that made her cross the floor to the Liberals
• Why a one-seat majority might be the worst-case scenario for federal Liberals

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