Alberta’s Separatists Are Chasing a Total Cowboy Fantasy

Alberta’s separatist rumblings are often framed as the latest chapter in a decades-old constitutional quarrel with Ottawa. But let’s be honest: the current rhetoric has little to do with fiscal policy or a West-versus-feds division of power. The noise is largely coming from a small cohort (only 8 percent of Albertans “would definitely vote to leave”) steeped in conspiracy-theory-fuelled grievance.

• Alberta separatists rely on rhetoric which scapegoats immigrants as a source of social problems
• Arguments about immigrant-caused systemic strain are not supported by data
• The myth of rural Alberta is a powerful rallying cry—but it doesn’t match demographic reality

Much of that grievance is seen through the lens of immigration.

Start with Mitch Sylvester, chief executive officer of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP). A key voice in the movement, Sylvester openly embraces the far-fetched and racist great replacement theory—the idea that evil elites are trying to replace, as Sylvester puts it, “old stock white Canadians.” He has also suggested that citizenship should be restricted to “people who are born here.” Other prominent APP individuals claim the feds are pushing a “jihadist extremist population” on Canada (this from the same person who thinks “the Marxists, they’re here and trying to get our kids”).

To call this language a dog whistle is an insult to dog whistles. There is nothing subtle about how Alberta separatists scapegoat immigrants. Of course, not everyone interested in breaking away endorses xenophobic theories. But such ideas no longer stay on the fringes. They are now aired, repeated, and—crucially—normalized by the political mainstream. Alberta Conservatives are leaning into the MAGA strategy of treating newcomers and temporary workers as a source of social problems, exemplified by Premier Danielle Smith’s recent call for a referendum on “out-of-control” immigration to the province.

Reality check: The number of immigrants and temporary workers in Alberta has decreased over the past year; they are not the primary cause of strain on the health care or education systems (those issues have been around a long time); and evidence consistently shows they have a positive impact on the economy and contribute significantly to our health care sector (a quarter of health care workers are newcomers, including more than a third of the country’s physicians and nearly half its pharmacists).

Indeed, a recent report by the conservative-leaning Fraser Institute concluded that the national Temporary Foreign Worker Program has “strong elements of ‘win-win’ for all parties,” including filling labour shortages and contributing to cheaper goods and services.

Separatists in Alberta like to bring up safety and crime as significant concerns. (As one of my online trolls put it: “Maybe people are fed up with Edmonton becoming little Mogadishu?” Nice.) These concerns, too, stem from false narratives. The crime rate in Alberta and Canada has been shrinking—for example, my hometown of Edmonton saw a 6 percent reduction in total crime and a 10 percent reduction in violent crime in 2024.

And despite the romanticized imagery of an idyllic “cowboy” life that is core to the separatist self-image, the crime rate is higher in rural Alberta (by 54 percent) than in urban settings, which is the most common destination for new immigrants. (Crime was also significantly higher decades ago—the often longed-for “good ole days.”)

The misconception of immigrants as prone to crime sprees is—as we’ve seen in the United States—an incredibly powerful, evidence-free political tool; one that can feed fear and hostility. So the truth bears repeating: immigrants (including undocumented) are not associated with higher crime rates. On the contrary, studies have shown that “immigration is consistently linked to decreases in violent (e.g., murder) and property (e.g., burglary) crime” and that “immigration has crime-reducing effects.”

But facts do little to change the mood. Many Canadians remain convinced crime is rising, that public safety should dominate the political agenda, and that immigration is somehow to blame. Those perceptions are strongest among conservative voters.

There is also the belief that controlling immigration will help Alberta preserve its character as an “independent rural people,” something highlighted by all the “they’re trying to replace us” talk. Indeed, according to Angus Reid polling, 83 percent of those who would vote to leave believe the claim “Albertans have a unique identity distinct from Canada” is a convincing argument for separation.

It is no surprise Alberta separatists are embracing the archetype of the “true” Albertan. From Barry Goldwater to Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush to Donald Trump, the myth of cowboy individualism has long been a powerful conservative rallying call. Jeffrey Rath, the cowboy-hatted lawyer and spokesman for the APP, says he speaks for “real Albertans” who “get up early” and “toil the land.”

• Alberta’s Separatist Movement Is a National Security Threat
• Is Danielle Smith a Separatist?
• Is Danielle Smith the Most Powerful Politician in Canada?

The demographics don’t fit the cliché. About 82 percent of Albertans live in an urban setting, which is similar to (read: not distinct from) the national average. It is also similar to countries like France, Korea, and Norway. Indeed, Alberta is much more urban than the world average (where about 55 percent live in cities), and its population is also broadly similar to the rest of Canada in terms of diversity, with roughly a quarter belonging to what Statistics Canada calls “racialized groups.”

“Statistically speaking, you’re far more likely to encounter a female, white-collar worker from Calgary than a cowboy, farmer, or rig worker,” Jared Wesley tells me. As a political scientist at the University of Alberta, he studies the values and perceptions that inform politics in this province. He says that “through a combination of subconscious stereotyping and deliberate branding,” the cowboy myth persists, “despite how much more diverse Alberta actually is.” But his research also shows that “many people feel personally disconnected from the dominant image of what it means to be Albertan.”

In fact, beyond being highly urban and culturally diverse, Alberta is a province filled with citizens who welcome immigrants, who feel strongly about staying in Canada, and (mostly) support marginalized and vulnerable communities (i.e., we are not nearly as “anti-woke” as some separatists would like to believe).

Yes, immigration is a complex policy issue. Yes, managing rapid population growth—of any kind—poses big challenges for governments across Canada. But too often, talk about safety, jobs, or “distinct identity” functions as code for intolerance, built on claims that simply don’t hold up to scrutiny.

Alberta’s separatists are not channelling the authentic voice of the province. They are projecting a vision of Alberta that reflects their own anxieties and ideological bile—a province smaller, narrower, and more exclusionary than the one that actually exists.