Falling support for Doug Ford and Ontario PCs as appetite grows for political alternatives: poll

About half of Ontarians say their impression of Premier Doug Ford has worsened in recent months and 56 per cent believe the province is headed in the wrong direction, according to a new Postmedia-Leger survey.

Barely over a third (36 per cent) of Ontarians surveyed believe the province is headed in the right direction.

The poll also found Premier Ford to be a polarizing figure in the province, simultaneously having the highest favourability (33 per cent) and unfavourability (59 per cent) rates among the political leaders mentioned in the survey. He was followed by NDP Leader Marit Stiles (31 per cent favourability) and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner (25 per cent).

The poll found that 48 per cent of Ontarians, including 27 per cent of PC voters and 58 per cent of Liberal voters, said that their impression of Ford has worsened over the last few months. Only five per cent of Ontarians said their view has improved. The number was only slightly higher (10 per cent) for PC voters. Another 40 per cent of Ontarians said their view stayed the same, including 63 per cent of PC voters and 34 per cent of Liberal voters.

The poll found that while the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party of Ontario remained the frontrunner for voting intentions among provincial residents, with 39 per cent support, the leaderless Liberal Party was closing the gap, with 34 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party of Ontario (17 per cent) in a distant third.

“I was anticipating some decline in PC support, given the news of late and just generally, the government is well into its third term and support has a tendency to soften,” Andrew Enns, the executive vice-president for Leger, told National Post in an email. “The rise in Liberal vote was a modest surprise, given they are leaderless at the moment. When I stop to think of it, however, the provincial Liberal Party brand is likely being helped by the current popularity of their federal cousins.”

The top concerns for Ontarians surveyed remained economic issues. Inflation and the rising cost of living were the leading concerns for Ontarians (22 per cent), followed by housing affordability (10 per cent). Enns saw in these numbers “top of mind important issues” that the Ford government should focus on if it wants to preserve its mandate to lead the province. Meanwhile, fears stemming from Canada’s relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump and the trade war have diminished, with these concerns now near the bottom of the list, at three per cent.

“The Ford government has been most successful when they have made the priorities of Ontarians their priorities as government,” Enns wrote. “The government has to find a way to get back into the affordability conversation and in a manner that is trying to make the lives of Ontarians better.”

He said that trade talks with America have “actually become a distraction for government as the issue has diminished in the public mind.”

Another issue that voters are increasingly concerned about is the question of ethics in politics, Enns noted. Concern for political corruption was the third most popular issue (seven per cent) that respondents thought the provincial government should focus on.

The responses come on the heels of the controversy surrounding Ford’s decision to purchase a nearly $30 million private jet. The province eventually reversed its decision and sold the plane following public backlash in April.

Enns placed the incident in context when asked what was driving Ford’s growing unfavourability in the province.

“I suspect the recent media coverage of the government jet purchase, and then the about-face on the purchase, did not sit well with many Ontarians,” Enns said.

The Leger survey also found over a third (39 per cent) of respondents were unhappy with the Ford government and thought it was time for the Liberals or NDP to govern the province. Less than a quarter (23 per cent) said they are satisfied with the Ford government and would vote for the PCs again, while 20 per cent were dissatisfied but still thought the party was a better option than the NDP or Liberals.

The online poll of 1,003 respondents was conducted by Leger between May 8 and 11. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in an online survey. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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