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How the 'Fréchette effect' (and the Habs) are shaping Quebec politics
OTTAWA — Former Quebec Premier Robert Bourassa was reportedly famous for saying that the province was easier to govern when the Montreal Canadiens are winning.
For Christine Fréchette, this might be partly true. But there’s more to her success story.
The new premier, who took the reins of François Legault’s flailing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) last month, has managed to make the CAQ bounce back in the polls, to the point where it could shake things up significantly for the election set to happen in October.
This week’s Léger poll for Le Journal de Montréal found that Fréchette’s party went up nine points since Legault’s departure. It now stands at 22 per cent of voting intentions among decided voters, in third place behind the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberals.
The front page of the newspaper on Wednesday showed the new premier, all smiles, sporting a Habs jersey. In big bold letters, it read: “A Fréchette effect on voting intentions.”
Voici notre une du matin en ce 20 mai 2026! Pour vous abonner à nos infolettres, c’est ici: https://t.co/MvQUDoKajb pic.twitter.com/7VqOJTpNWz
— Le Journal de Montréal (@JdeMontreal) May 20, 2026
Sébastien Dallaire, Léger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, said historical evidence shows that when people are in a very good mood because of a variety of reasons, which may include their hockey team’s good performance, it tends to benefit incumbents.
But he said it is “a little bit far-fetched” to give the Montreal Canadiens too much credit.
“I think it’s much more related to Christine Fréchette’s performance and the effort she has made at trying to change the dynamics, change the way that people think about the CAQ, and she has been able to succeed so far,” said Dallaire in an interview.
Quebec is in a unique position not seen in decades with five political parties now in play. While the PQ is still on track to form government — probably a minority — Quebec Liberals, the CAQ, the Quebec Conservatives and Quebec Solidaire are all poised to win seats.
Dallaire said this Léger poll marks the first one with all the political leaders in place in the Oct. 5 election, and it is showing that there is “an entirely new race in front of us.”
The PQ is at 30 per cent, the Liberals behind with 28 per cent and the CAQ at 22 per cent. The Conservatives and Solidaires are at 11 and eight per cent, respectively.
But a closer look at the numbers shows that Fréchette has seen her party’s numbers improve among francophones, women, and people over the age of 55 — demographics that could throw a wrench in the electoral projections should they move upward.
“We now have three parties who are possibly contending in the upcoming election,” said Dallaire. “While the CAQ remains a little bit behind, it is now back in the conversation.”
For months, Philippe J. Fournier’s Quebec125 polling aggregator website had the CAQ completely eradicated from the electoral map with zero seats. But his new modelling projections on Thursday showed the CAQ had climbed to an average of nine seats.
It’s not nearly enough to form government, but just enough to sow division for the other parties and potentially cause turmoil in close races across the province, said Fournier.
“It’s hurting the Liberals to an extent, it’s hurting the Conservatives for their dreams of having at least 12 seats to have the threshold for party status, and it could potentially hurt the PQ, because… it makes it incredibly difficult to have a majority,” he said.
Fournier said there are “many swing seats that could be decided by tiny margins.”
Fournier gave the example of Mégantic in the Eastern Townships, which was expected to swing to the Conservatives but is now a four-way race according to his projections.
He said the current poll numbers could mean that there could be tight races across the province where the winner could win with less than 30 per cent of the vote.
Fréchette has quickly made her mark in the province with her many announcements and international travels. Léger found that 20 per cent of Quebecers currently think she would make the best premier, only two points behind PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
In comparison, 29 per cent of voters are still undecided on who would make the best premier, a clear sign that Quebecers are still observing the political players.
“It’s like we’ve shuffled the deck, and now we’re playing an entirely new game, and we’ll see who comes out of the winner, but it’s far from over,” said Dallaire.
“There are a lot of question marks that are unanswered right now,” he added.
There are, however, some warning signs for Fréchette. Quebecers are keeping their options open, with 48 per cent telling Léger their choice is definitive, while 49 per cent are saying their choice is not definitive, and they could end up voting for another party.
“Among the major parties, the CAQ vote remains the softest. It’s the CAQ voters that are the most likely to say they could still change their mind,” said Dallaire.
Fréchette has been taking up lots of media attention by travelling to Washington, D.C. and more recently to Paris, and overall emulating Prime Minister Mark Carney’s winning formula, said Fournier. For the moment, he said her start as premier is a success.
But can she sustain those numbers and possibly go higher throughout the summer?
“If the Habs win the Stanley Cup, and around June 24, we see Madame Fréchette standing next to a Stanley Cup with a beaming smile… Man, I wonder,” said Fournier.
National Post calevesque@postmedia.com
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