An Alberta separatist and a former premier agree on one thing: Smith's party is heading for a split

OTTAWA — A separatist and a federalist walk into a Calgary event and leave with the same prediction about Alberta politics: Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party is headed for a split.

On the “stay” side, former premier Jason Kenney and founder of the current United Conservative Party, which merged the former Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties. Kenney is also a member of the Postmedia board.

On the “leave” side, Keith Wilson, an Alberta lawyer championing separation, well-known in recent years for representing central figures in the 2022 “Freedom Convoy” protests.

Hosted by Calgary-based think-tank the Aristotle Foundation, the debate on Monday saw the two men lay out their arguments for staying and going, with Kenney saying the separatists “can’t be taken seriously” and lack any coherent plan to deal with the economic fallout that divorcing Canada would bring.

Wilson countered by contending it was federalists who were lacking a plan to solve the longstanding frustrations Albertans have had in the federation, saying all their side had on offer was “fear” and advice to keep on fighting after decades of having done so.

But on what it all means for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party, both men appeared to agree.

“If we go into this spiral of massive division and uncertainty, the only political winner would be the Liberal Party of Canada,” Kenney told the crowd.

He said he believes public opinion polls show the federal Liberals riding high in Alberta, an anomaly in the province, partly out of fear Kenney says has been stoked by the “secessionist movement,” coupled with the “rally around the flag effect” that helped elect Carney in the first place, in light of threats coming from U.S. President Donald Trump.

“Provincially,” Kenney told Wilson, “this movement is going to split the governing conservative party right down the middle if this carries on.”

He questioned how Alberta would be made any stronger by seeing more federal Liberals elected to Ottawa and having Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi as its next premier.

Wilson did not disagree.

“Albertans who are concerned and support independence understand we’re at an existential moment. They understand that this is a rare moment in time of convergence of opportunity and convergence of threat,” the separatist said.

“If we’re not successful with independence, we know there’s likely to be a split in the (United Conservative Party), and the NDP is likely to be the next government.”

That reality, Wilson continued, is why his movement must put in the work to persuade more to join their side.

With Smith’s question asking Albertans whether they want a referendum about separating from Canada set for Oct. 19, both sides have less than 150 days to shore up support for staying or laying the groundwork to go.

Prime Minister Mark Carney warned on Monday that those pushing for separation based on the idea that it gives them a negotiating advantage down the road were toying with a “very dangerous bluff.”

He drew on his experience as Bank of England governor during the Brexit, where the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, which Carney says was fuelled by views that suggested leaving would be “soft” and matters negotiated later.

Kenney offered his own set of cautions for Albertans banging the separatist drum: The prospect of losing their Canadian passports, seeing billions of investment flee the province, housing prices falling, not to mention risking “massive civil disobedience” related to the province’s more than two-dozen First Nations that have treaties with the Crown who would likely reject the outcome of a referendum to leave.

Then comes the ramifications of trying to get more oil and gas to market. Not only does the federal government own the Trans-Mountain pipeline, but a U.S. president who is less eager to build pipelines south of the border could take office in the future, making that path all the more difficult.

“So, we become a landlocked state as a resource commodity producing exporting jurisdiction. It would be the single most dramatic act of economic suicide in modern history,” the former premier said.

Wilson dismissed the fact that Alberta’s four land borders were a problem with a country as “culturally aligned” like the U.S. next door, saying “we’re not landlocked by the Rockies, we’re landlocked by Ottawa,” which earned him applause in the room.

“So this landlocked argument also is like a distraction,” he said.

Wilson opened his arguments by drawing on past efforts made by Alberta-based federalist parties of yesteryear of which Kenney belonged, from the “West wants in” demands of the former Reform Party, to the victory declared by former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper that the “West is in,” when the modern party took government 20 years ago.

“We’ve tried loyalty, we’ve tried patience,” Wilson said at one point. “We’re told send the right people, make the right arguments, build the right condition and the right coalitions and Confederation will work. Well, it’s been proven wrong time and time again.”

Kenney near the end of his arguments drew on words he said former Quebec premier Francois Legault told him about why he left the separatist cause behind in his province to lead a federalist party.

“He realized for six decades Quebec wasted its political energy and that of its elites, focused on an internal political civil war instead of growing their economy, focusing on prosperity,” Kenney said.

“His message to me is, why would you replicate in Alberta what we failed at in Quebec, which was turning in on ourselves and wasting our resources, our time, and our energy on this internal dispute, as opposed to focusing on growth and productivity.”

National Post

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