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There are major implications for Canada in upcoming Michigan and Wisconsin primaries
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Primary season is well underway in the United States, with 20 states having already held votes to nominate Republican and Democratic candidates for this year’s November midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives .
Ottawa will be keeping a close eye on how the remaining primaries, and especially the national vote, pan out because the House is crucial to U.S. foreign policy and trade. Having a party that’s considered friendlier to Canada could mean an easing of tariffs and stronger support for renewing the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
To win control of the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats, and the northern region has several races that could have an outsized impact on whether they pull this off. That’s especially true in Michigan and Wisconsin, which have August primaries that pundits will be watching for signs of what’s to come.
“Of the northern states, it’s going to be Michigan. It’s going to be Wisconsin. It’s going to be Ohio,” said Erin Covey, who helms The Cook Political Report’s coverage of the U.S. House of Representatives. “Those are going to be the states that have the biggest impact on control of the House and control of the Senate.”
The big picture, according to Covey, is that the political environment strongly favours Democrats this year.
“Midterms are almost always a referendum on the party in power,” she said.
The Cook Political Report has Democrats up seven points nationwide, while U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stuck below the 40 per cent mark, and his polling is especially weak with Independents. But even with the redistricting — Republicans have redrawn lines to favour themselves with a 10-seat buffer — Covey said, “Democrats should still be in a pretty good position … and are still favoured to win the House.”
For Michigan, there are four races to watch: the fourth, seventh, eighth, and 10th districts. The seventh is a toss-up, while the eighth is what Covey’s colleagues call a lean Democrat seat, meaning it tends to favour Dems but could go either way, and the fourth is likely to go to the Republicans but is proving competitive this year.
But the central House battleground for Michiganders is the 10th, located in the northern Detroit suburbs, according to David Dulio, politics professor at Oakland University.
The seat — considered a lean Republican district — is being vacated by Republican Congressman John James, who is running for governor. Eric Chung, Tim Greimel and Christina Hines are vying for the Democrats’ nod, while Michael Bouchard, Steffan Demetropoulos, Justin Kirk, and Robert Lulgjuraj are competing for the Republican nomination.
Its proximity to Detroit and Canada will be a factor.
“This is a seat that is very central to the car manufacturing industry,” said Covey. “Because of that, I think people there have a mixed view of tariffs.”
Dulio agreed, noting it was where ire toward the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was replaced by CUSMA in 2020, first started.
“Voters in Macomb County laid a lot of blame at the feet of that legislation as reasons why jobs were being lost,” he said. “So it can be a very trade-focused electorate.”
Whether the majority favour tariffs today is an open question.
“It really depends on who you’re talking to,” said Dulio, noting that “we’re in such a polarized, tribal era of American politics.”
But GOP candidates are being quiet about the impacts of trade and CUSMA.
“Republicans who used to rail against ‘bad trade deals’ are often silent about tariffs today, because they don’t want to anger the president,” Dulio said.
Covey thinks tariffs are probably favoured in this district, but she noted that everyone is feeling the pinch of rising prices.
“The cost of living has increased everywhere, including in this district, and this is a pretty working-class district where people are going to feel that more than in other parts of the country,” she said.
“If Democrats are able to make the case that part of that is due to the tariffs, then that could certainly hurt Republicans.”
Wisconsin, meanwhile, has a more limited battlefield; Covey points to the state’s first and third districts. The first has incumbent Republican Bryan Steil facing off with José Vera and Connor Walleck, and several Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination.
But it’s a done deal, according to PBS Wisconsin political reporter Zachary Schultz.
“It’s one of those mirage districts where it looks appealing from a certain distance because the numbers within the district make it seem like it should be closer than it is.”
Democrats have tried and failed.
“They’ve never had enough support from national Democrats to put the district in play,” Schultz said.
Also, Steil is tough to beat.
“(He) is too good of a fundraiser and too good of a politician that he hasn’t made it close,” Schultz added, noting that it would require a major Democratic wave to put Steil in real jeopardy.
Republicans in both Michigan and Wisconsin are firmly Trump-aligned, so there aren’t any big loyalty tests playing out in primaries.
But there is a flippable seat in Wisconsin’s Third district, experts say. Republican Derrick Van Orden, the incumbent, is unchallenged for his primary, but he will face the winner of the Democratic ticket being sought by Rebecca Cooke and Emily Berge.
“That is the most flippable of any seats in Wisconsin that are likely to flip,” said Schultz, adding that it “could be the determining factor of who controls Congress.”
The result, especially if it clinches a Democratic majority in the House, could have a real impact on trade policies.
“There are a lot of Democrats in Wisconsin that would like to see a lot of those tariffs disappear,” said Schultz, “especially with Canada, as a very traditional trading partner and right across the border.”
National Post
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