Former cabinet minister poses problems for Bradford in Toronto mayoral race: poll

A new poll suggests incumbent Olivia Chow continues to lead the Toronto mayoral race, while newcomer and former cabinet minister Chris Alexander has debuted with a 10 per cent share of support.

The Liaison Strategies survey , which is the first carried out since Alexander joined the race, put Chow’s support among decided and leaning voters at 47 per cent, seven points ahead of city councillor Brad Bradford’s 40 per cent support.

In the previous Toronto Pulse survey, before Alexander was included on the ballot, Chow stood at 49 per cent and Bradford at 41 per cent.

Meanwhile, among all voters, Chow’s support is at 38 per cent, Bradford’s is at 32 per cent, Alexander’s is at eight per cent, “someone else” is at three per cent, and 20 per cent are undecided.

The Liaison strategies poll also looked at Torontonians’ familiarity with Alexander, who is a former Conservative federal cabinet minister and long-time diplomat.

While 14 per cent have a favourable impression of him, 61 per cent said they are not familiar with him. Meanwhile, 11 per cent have an unfavourable impression and 14 per cent are not sure.

“This is still Olivia Chow’s race…That is not enough to put Alexander in contention today, but it is enough to matter,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

“The right way to read Alexander’s number is that he has entered the race with some immediate support, but very little municipal definition … He is a former federal cabinet minister and former ambassador, but most municipal voters have not yet formed an opinion of him.”

The 57-year-old was once Canada’s ambassador to Afghanistan and an immigration minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper.

He joined the mayoral race on July 29, drawing criticism from Bradford, who told reporters at Toronto City Hall that he’s “never heard of” Alexander.

However, Valentin notes that Alexander may pose a problem for Bradford, because he “no longer has the centre-right lane entirely to himself.”

Alexander’s entry to the race comes as Bradford’s numbers look “a little rougher” this week, according to Valentin. His favourable impression is 29 per cent, compared to 31 per cent in a previous survey, while his unfavourable impression is 30 per cent, compared to 26 per cent previously.

“He is becoming slightly better known, but not in the direction he would want,” Valentin said.

Meanwhile, half of Torontonians surveyed approve of the job Chow is doing as mayor, while 43 per cent disapprove and six per cent are not sure. This is stable compared to the previous survey, when 51 per cent approved and 43 per cent disapproved.

That said, residents are split on whether the city is moving in the right or the wrong direction, at 46 per cent apiece.

“The safety numbers are mixed in a way that matters politically,” said Valentin. “Most residents say they feel safe living in Toronto, with 68 per cent saying very or somewhat safe. But 51 per cent say Toronto is less safe than it was one year ago, compared to just nine per cent who say it is safer.

“That is the tension: people may not feel unsafe day to day, but many think the trend line is getting worse.”

When asked whether they would support a greater police and security presence at large street festivals, even if that raises costs, 81 per cent said yes. “That is an overwhelming number,” Valentin said.

“For Chow, the race is still manageable but not settled,” he added. “For Bradford, the issue is no longer just catching Chow, it is holding enough of the anti-Chow vote together. For Alexander, the opportunity is that most voters have not yet defined him. The risk is that being introduced to voters in a mayoral campaign is not the same thing as being accepted by them.”

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Aug. 4 to Aug. 5 using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

• Harper-era cabinet minister Chris Alexander a late entry in Toronto mayoral race
• The man working to oust Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our politics newsletter, First Reading, here.