Power abhors a vacuum

It is a truism in competitive strategy that power abhors a vacuum.

Not even a week into the new administration and we are seeing early signs of how its policies are backfiring. Trump threatens increasing trade difficulty with Mexico and Canada, China offers them free trade and greater market access to the largest market in the world. Trump pulls out of international climate accords and big oil complains that they cannot slow down international regulation because they no longer have seats at the table. Meanwhile China steps forward to accelerate its emissions reductions.

Trump talks up his plan to increase business growth via tariffs and the Wall St. Journal's experts point out how inflationary it will be. Trump enacts 200-year old legislation to justify enslaving immigrants without due process while the rest of the world wonders how the outcome will be different than Chinese imprisonment of Uyghurs. Trump announces plans to boost oil production, while the rest of the world cuts back on consumption to save the planet, wondering who will need all that oil by the time it comes online. Meanwhile, China expands its leadership in battery, wind and solar technologies.

The root cause is lack of evidence-based decision making, but the consequence of an American retreat from the international stage means that the vacuum will be filled by China. Any expectation that the USA will slow down China's growing economic and moral influence is rapidly undermined by creating a void for the Chinese to fill.