John Ivison: Conservatives need a Project Doubt to outdo Carney’s Project Fear

The morning after one of the biggest political rallies in recent Canadian history, Pierre Poilievre was still buzzing. In the wake of his policy announcement in Edmonton on Tuesday, he bantered with reporters. “When was the last time we had a rally that big in Canada?” he asked. “This is a movement like we’ve never seen. Because people want change.” Something is happening, that’s for sure. The 10,000-plus people who joined the Conservative leader and his former boss, Stephen Harper , in a vacant warehouse south of Edmonton are on board with the concept of change. In the West of the country, there is deep disquiet about the resurrection of the Liberals and the potential impact on the resource sector. Harper said that the bulk of the problems affecting the country such as falling living standards, declining employment and housing opportunities, rising crime and regional divisions were created by three Liberal terms in government, “policies the present prime minister supported and wants a fourth Liberal term to continue.” Poilievre picked up on the theme at his event the next morning, boiling the election down to a fourth Liberal term or change to a Conservative government that would cut taxes, build homes and “unleash” the resource industry. “That’s the choice,” he said. It’s the strongest message track Poilievre has to play but it is being drowned out by the cacophony of anxieties around Donald Trump’s efforts to reorder the world trading system. The president has not talked about annexing Canada or mentioned the 51st state canard in recent days but fears of recession, or worse, are preoccupying voters. The bad news is good news for Mark Carney, who is seen as being best prepared to lead the country into an uncertain economic future. That is the message track the Liberal campaign has sought to reinforce. His wife, Diana Fox Carney, introduced him at an event in Richmond, B.C., on Monday night, calling him “cool and calm under pressure,” citing the example of the day after the Brexit vote in Britain when Carney was governor of the Bank of England. “He had done the work, he was ready and knew what needed to be done to take the country through difficult days when no one else seemed to. That’s where we find ourselves today,” she said. At his morning event in Delta, B.C., Carney said Trump is trying to fundamentally restructure the U.S. economy and, in the process, is rupturing the global economy, leading to volatility on global financial markets. “That is putting retirement savings at risk and people’s livelihoods, from the auto industry in Ontario to forestry workers in B.C., in jeopardy,” he said. The writers of the political satire Veep once appropriated the slogan of Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull “continuity with change” because it sounded “hollow and oxymoronic.” But essentially, Carney is campaigning on “stability with change.” He is promising to protect what Canadians have, while adapting to the world that is morphing beyond recognition. “Business as usual will not work; the status quo cannot stand,” he said. His critics accuse him of engaging in a kind of Project Fear , the scaremongering that was employed by the Remain side during the Brexit referendum. But the Remain warnings turned out to be a reality check, not groundless pessimism, and Canadians don’t need much convincing that the Trump administration really does want our water, our land and our resources. Carney imparts all this in funereal tones, with a face so grave it looks like it should be peering from a coffin. He talked about “building our way out of an economic crisis,” providing $25 billion in financing for prefabricated and modular housing and cutting development charges and taxes on new homes in half for multi-unit housing. Retrofits for heat pumps and roof and window replacements will be paid for from the new large emitter carbon credit market (the industrial carbon tax) that he has yet to explain . “These are insurmountable challenges if, like Pierre Poilievre, your only plan involves fiddling with the tax code and slashing programs that work,” he said. Carney says he is not a career politician but “a pragmatist” who has appeared in the nick of time to address a series of crises, as if some kind of Bat Signal has been projected over the northern skies to summon a saviour during the country’s darkest hour. It is a measure of the critical situation that Canadians feel themselves to be in that so many are willing to take so much on faith. The polls suggest that many people who had forsaken the Liberals have come back and see in Carney the experienced centrist they believe the country needs. Those people have, for whatever reason, decided that Poilievre cannot be extended the same level of trust. The latest  Angus Reid Institute poll  suggests 50 per cent of voters view Carney as the best prime minister, compared to just 28 per cent for Poilievre. There are signs that the Liberal leader’s positive momentum may be slowing: the Angus Reid poll said that the net percentage whose view of him has improved, against those whose view has worsened, is dipping slightly. But he remains firmly in net positive territory, in stark contrast to Poilievre, who polls show has been unable to improve perceptions among people who are not hardcore supporters. A Trump-like focus on the number of people who attended his rallies is unlikely to change those views. The Conservatives simply have to put doubt in the minds of the jury about whether Carney has the right stuff if they are to have any chance of victory in the second half of the campaign. National Post jivison@criffel.ca

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