Liberals believe they have 'real shot' at picking up seats on Vancouver Island

VICTORIA, B.C. — In the mostly white-haired crowd at The Victoria Edelweiss Club, waiting to hear from Liberal Leader Mark Carney on Sunday evening, Rhonda Ljunggren stood out. “I should be in bed at this point because I’m an old person. Here I am with flags in my hair,” she chuckled, pointing to the Canadian flag paraphernalia she was sporting for the occasion — two small flags shoved in a ponytail and a wind spinner in her hand. Ljunggren said she was planning to vote for the incumbent NDP candidate, Laurel Collins. But as soon as U.S. President Donald Trump started threatening Canada with tariffs and annexation, she said she “cried her eyes out.” “I just went nuts, literally,” she said. “I thought: I don’t want to spend my retirement worrying that my country is going to be invaded or something like that.” So, she got a red sign on her lawn. She will be voting Liberal on April 28.

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Jeremy Sturgess, another resident of Victoria, said he voted for the NDP’s Laurel Collins in 2021 but will be voting strategically for the Liberals for similar reasons as Ljunggren. “I feel sorry for her,” he said, speaking about Collins. “It’s just not the right time.” Sturgess said the upcoming election is “too important” for the country. Their stories are not unique. Liberal candidates and organizers who spoke to the National Post during Carney’s visit in British Columbia said they are seeing shifting support on Vancouver Island — to the point they think they could elect a Liberal MP again. The last time that happened on the island was during the 2008 election. “It has changed a lot,” said Sulo Saravanabawan, the Liberal party’s regional chair for Vancouver Island. “People are coming into the campaign offices asking, ‘Can we help? Can we volunteer? Can we door-knock?’ We have never seen this, from 2015 until now.” “You never know, right? Things could change. But it looks really good,” she said. At the moment, New Democrats hold five of the six ridings on the island. Then, there’s Saanich —Gulf Islands, held by Green party co-leader Elizabeth May. With the collapse of the NDP, 338Canada, a polling aggregator website, is forecasting a fierce battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives for those seats. The riding of Victoria is leaning Liberal, according to the website’s projections, which explains why Carney was at the German social club with local candidate Will Greaves. Greaves, an associate professor at the University of Victoria, claimed his chances of being elected are “very strong” and said all signs point to a growing “momentum” for the party. “We’ve had an unprecedented number of volunteers, we’ve got a huge amount of donations… we can’t keep signs on the shelf because everybody wants their lawn signs, so we really are feeling incredibly good about our campaign right now,” he said. Other ridings could see close races. May’s riding is shaping to be a toss-up between the Liberals, the Conservatives and the Greens; while Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke looks to be a three-way race between Liberals, the Conservatives and the NDP, per 338Canada. The Conservative message has been resonating on the island, especially in the northern ridings where their provincial cousins were able to make some gains last October. As things stand, the federal ridings of North Island—Powell River, Courtenay—Alberni and Nanaimo— Ladysmith, are poised to become Conservative according to 338Canada. Outside a cider house in May’s riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands, Carney was attempting to appeal to voters on two fronts: more help for seniors and protecting Canada’s nature. But the overarching theme of those promises, he admitted, all comes down to Trump. “The reality is that the key issue in this election is who can stand up to the threats from America to our sovereignty, to our nature, to our livelihoods, to our future? Who do you want at that negotiating table?” said Carney about targeting NDP and Green ridings. The Liberal candidate in the riding is David Beckham — not the famous British soccer player by the same name, but a renewable energy specialist and a farmer. In an interview, Beckham made sure to clarify that he is not running “against” May, who has represented the riding since 2011, but rather “running for the Liberal party.” He said that while there is a “diversity of opinions” in the riding, the general consensus seems to be that “this is a moment in history (where) we need to lock arms, we need to be unified against this threat (from the U.S.), and the best option for that is Mark Carney.” “I can tell you at the doors the enthusiasm and the optimism are infectious and, in some cases, even overwhelming,” he said. Former environment minister Catherine McKenna, who came of her own accord to knock on doors and help the local candidates on Vancouver Island, is also surprised. “There’s so much support. I’ve never seen so much excitement on the island,” she said. “I think we have a real shot.” National Post calevesque@postmedia.com