Liberals hold their breath as they await election results and possible fourth term

OTTAWA — Liberals are holding their breath awaiting the results of an election that could give their party what they could only dream of mere weeks ago: a majority fourth term. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats of annexation shaped the federal election in a dramatic way, causing many Canadians to put their trust in a new Liberal leader that they barely know but trust enough to navigate uncharted waters. Mark Carney, a political novice, was chosen as leader of the Liberal party seven weeks ago, was sworn in as prime minister five days later, and called an election 10 days after that. Carney has been using his experience as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and as head of the Bank of England during Brexit to convince voters that he can stand up to Trump and rebuild Canada’s economy to make it the strongest in the G7. As he crisscrossed the country throughout the campaign, he asked the same question which would generate cries of patriotism in rallies everywhere: “Who’s ready?” “Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me?” he asked during a rally last week in the Ottawa-area riding of Nepean where he is running as a member of Parliament. “Who’s ready to help the Liberal Party win the most consequential election of our lifetimes?” The latest poll by Nanos Research shows that the Liberals are leading in all areas of the country, except in the Prairies where the Conservatives are first and the Liberals second. The first polls will be closing in Newfoundland and Labrador at 7 p.m. ET. The rest of the polls in the Atlantic region will be closing 30 minutes later, and Canadians will be able to see if Liberals were able to pick up more seats or completely sweep the region like in 2015. But the bulk of the votes will come when the polls close in vote-rich Quebec and Ontario at 9:30 ET. All eyeballs will be on the battlegrounds in the Greater Toronto Area, especially in ridings where Liberals won razor-thin victories against the Conservatives in 2021. While most of the ridings in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to remain blue, Liberals have high hopes to win seats in Saskatoon and Regina, but also elect more MPs in Calgary and Edmonton — which they hope will help with the sentiment of Western alienation. But the most interesting battle might be the last to occur in the evening. British Columbia has been a busy battleground for the Liberals, Conservatives, the NDP and the Greens. Carney travelled to Vancouver Island three times during the campaign, where the Liberals are hoping to pick up a seat for the first time in almost two decades. Those races could make the difference between a minority and a majority government. Carney has been calling for a “strong” or a “clear” mandate, but others have been openly calling or predicting a majority mandate Monday evening. That was the case in recent days for foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly and former prime minister Jean Chrétien . “Monday is going to be a Liberal sunshine day,” Chrétien told supporters in Ottawa. National Post calevesque@postmedia.com Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our politics newsletter, First Reading, here.