'This is about the economy': What motivates Alberta separatists

With dedicated groups of Albertans pushing for the western province to secede from Canada, new polling shows that most of those living in the province reject this idea, while just over one-third support some form of independence from Canada. The Postmedia-Leger poll also found that 44 per cent of Albertans identify as “primarily Canadian,” while only 21 per cent identify as primarily Albertan. A further 32 per cent say they identify as both equally. Sixty per cent of those who oppose separation say they identify as primarily Canadian; even among those who wish to see an independent Alberta, 23 per cent say they identify as primarily Canadian, while 45 per cent say they are primarily Albertan. When it comes to a future scenario involving an independent Alberta, the most popular idea, which received the support of 35 per cent of Albertans, would be an independent western bloc, from Manitoba to the Pacific Ocean. Thirty per cent support just Alberta and Saskatchewan breaking away and forming their own country, while 29 per cent would support Alberta going it alone. Just 17 per cent of Albertans are interested in joining the United States. “I don’t really see this as something that’s been really steamrolling and gaining a ton of momentum. I think it’s … probably been festering for a bit,” said Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president, central Canada. “Probably the re-election of the Liberals didn’t help to diminish anything. But I wouldn’t suggest also that it’s actually added a bunch of fuel to the fire.” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been a frequent critic of the federal government’s approach to Alberta. When she met with Prime Minister Mark Carney prior to the election, she made a list of nine demands, many of them involving the energy sector, that she said she expected to see met within six months, or there could be an “unprecedented national unity crisis.” The majority of Albertans (53 per cent) support Smith’s approach on those demands, while 34 per cent disagree. Eighty-three per cent of those who support separation also support Smith’s approach, compared to 34 per cent of those who do not support separation. “What she’s doing is not completely offside with her voters and the electorate. I mean, her job is to represent Alberta and Albertans, and not necessarily do things that are going to make (Ontario) Premier (Doug) Ford happy,” said Enns. The polling also sheds light on Albertans’ motivations for believing the province ought to leave Canada. Among those who believe that Alberta should separate, 54 per cent said it’s because of a combination of economic, political and cultural reasons. The single largest individual motivation is economic, largely to do with resource management and taxation. Almost one third (30 per cent) of Albertans give economic factors as their primary reason, compared to eight per cent who identify political reasons — such as political underrepresentation — as their main motivation and five per cent who give cultural reasons, such as regional identity or values. “This isn’t some sort of cultural thing that — somehow Albertans have, maybe, this cowboy culture,” said Enns. “This is about the economy.” Economic motivations are strongest among 18 to 34 year olds, with 42 per cent listing those issues as their primary motivation for supporting separation. Carney might have some reasons to feel that the tensions can be tamped down. The polling found that 58 per cent of  respondents said the actions of the federal government could influence their support for separation, both for and against, while only 23 per cent said their support is baked in already. Still, 62 per cent of Albertans say people outside the province don’t understand their grievances. Even among the 29 per cent who think Alberta’s grievances are understood, only six per cent think they’re understood well. Almost half of all Albertans are still willing to take a wait-and-see approach to Carney, particularly on energy. Forty-four per cent believe that Carney will deliver on his energy promises, which include positioning Canada as an energy superpower. However, just as many don’t believe Carney will deliver. Of those who oppose separation, 60 per cent are confident that Carney will deliver, while 66 per cent who support separation are not confident. “If we’re talking about economic opportunity and economic growth and economic freedom, those are some things that from a federal government perspective, they have the ability to pull a few levers,” said Enns. The polling was done via an online survey of 1,000 Alberta adults between May 9 and 12. The results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

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