Canadians feel unwelcome in the U.S. as mistrust remains high: new poll

Now that Canada’s trade war with America has surged back into public consciousness like a blast from the recent past, a new poll suggests Canadian frustration with and mistrust of the U.S. remains high, despite a slight easing.

In March, for example, polling showed a dramatic realignment of Canadian attitudes toward its southern neighbour. Europe and Britain were suddenly the countries Canadians felt best about, and Canadians were starting to feel about America the way they felt about Russia.

But lately, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s attention mostly elsewhere, there are signs of a slight bump back from this low point, despite troubling news developments like the death of a Canadian citizen in U.S. immigration custody.

More than half of Canadians now say they “no longer feel welcome in the United States,” for example, and this sentiment is strongest among women and older people.

During the recent Canadian election campaign with its looming threat of crippling tariffs and annexation, there was a “worrisome intersection” in the Canadian mind of the American government and the American people, according to Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies (ACS).

But in this latest poll, he sees a “healthy development” of Canadian anger and frustration being focused primarily on the American government, and less so the American people.

Back in April, barely one Canadian in five (21 per cent) said they trust Americans in a similar poll. But in the latest poll, that figure has rebounded to 34 per cent, which is historically normal, about the same as it was near the end of Trump’s first term, but still considerably lower than the 59 per cent it reached in October 2023, Jedwab said.

Asked if they trust the United States, the country as opposed to the American people, those numbers drop substantially. A majority of 53 per cent said the country could not be trusted, and only 21 per cent said it could. That distrust is greater among Canadians older than 65. It is also stronger among residents of British Columbia, and lowest among Albertans and Atlantic Canadians.

The poll was taken by Leger for the ACS between June 20 and 22, so it does not reflect Canadian reaction to Donald Trump’s latest cancellation of trade talks last weekend, which prompted Prime Minister Mark Carney to rescind a digital industries tax, which targeted American tech firms, in order to restart negotiations.

But the poll shows a silver lining in an otherwise gloomy picture of this longstanding national friendship, military alliance, and economic partnership.

“We just don’t trust the motivation behind the re-opening of trade,” Jedwab said. “We’re persuaded we’re the kindler, gentler nation, and we’re being bullied by their president.”

Overall, a majority of Canadians feel unwelcome in the United States, the poll suggests. They regard the borders as secure, but 45 per cent of Canadians say the United States is not a trusted security and defence partner, compared to just 32 per cent who say it is.

The poll also shows Canadians overwhelmingly feel Canada’s trade rules for the U.S. are fair, but the U.S. trade rules for Canada are unfair. Fully 75 per cent say American rules governing trade are unfair to Canada, whereas only 12 per cent feel Canada’s rules are unfair.

“I think that trust is the key predictor of Canadians feeling unwelcome in the United States and it also hampers our ability to fix perceived problems between our two countries,” Jedwab said. “The lack of trust a key indicator in trade negotiations and we will need to build or re-build trust if we re going to succeed. That won’t be simple because in effect the U.S. President is not perceived to be a trusted ally by Canadians.”

Despite all that, the poll also shows a majority of Canadians believe they have more in common with Americans than with any other people in the world.

This poll was conducted through an online panel survey, so a margin of error cannot be calculated. But a randomized poll of similar size, with 1,579 respondents, would be considered accurate to within 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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