Here are three scenarios — including a Christmas election — that could happen with Monday’s budget vote

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority government will face a crucial test on Monday, Nov. 17, as it will face a third and final confidence vote on his budget,

Already, Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois have said their MPs would be voting against the government’s fiscal plan, leaving few options for the Liberals to find the two votes needed in the House of Commons to get a majority of votes to pass their budget.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, with her single vote, has said she would not support the budget in its current form but is open to negotiating. Meanwhile, the seven New Democrats have still not made up their minds — and it is unclear if the MPs will all vote the same way.

All budgetary matters are considered to be a matter of confidence. Should the budget fail to pass, the minority Liberal government will have lost the confidence of the House and will be expected to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament for an election to be held.

Monday’s vote is so critical that ministers and opposition party MPs will be leaving the international climate summit COP30 in Brazil early to make it back to Canada in time.

But Carney does not seem to be preoccupied by the prospect of an early election as he is set to take off the next day, on Nov. 18, for a bilateral visit to the United Arab Emirates. He will then be attending the G20 Summit in South Africa and coming back on Nov. 24.

So, which party — or MPs — could blink? Are Canadians headed to a Christmas election?

Here are the scenarios the Liberals are looking at as this vote approaches.

New Democrats have consistently said they would be taking the break week around Remembrance Day to consult with their constituents, with stakeholders and with working Canadians before coming to a decision on how they will vote on the budget.

Currently, the NDP is torn between voting against as a way to protest cuts in the federal public service which they say will affect the most vulnerable, voting in favour because of specific measures that certain MPs have been advocating for — or simply abstaining.

However, certain NDP MPs, such as Jenny Kwan, have ruled out abstaining which has sparked questions on whether everyone in the caucus will be voting the same way.

The budget includes a few olive branches in an attempt to woo New Democrats.

One of them is funding for a Filipino community centre in Metro Vancouver — something that interim NDP Leader Don Davies has long advocated for. There is also over $250 million to bolster aerial firefighting capacity — which NDP MP Gord Johns has been asking for.

The government was originally supposed to cut all federal departments by 15 per cent, with some subject to more modest cuts of 2 per cent. But the budget spared the deepest cuts to other departments such as Indigenous Services and Crown-Indigenous Relations.

Lori Idlout, the NDP MP for Nunavut, said services for Indigenous peoples were already underfunded — citing reports of Inuit children having to steal food because their parents cannot afford groceries. She said it is “astonishing” to think more cuts are coming.

Public service unions and labour groups have already slammed the nearly 40,000 cuts to the federal workforce, arguing that they will lead to less services and more delays for the most vulnerable Canadians. They expect the NDP to take that into consideration.

“The NDP has always been known as the workers’ party, so we know that the NDP, as they have done in the past, and as they probably will do now, will defend workers’ rights,” said Larry Rousseau, executive vice-president of the Canadian Labour Congress, on Nov. 5.

“That’s what we expect to see.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was clear that his caucus would be voting unanimously against what he calls the “costly Carney credit card budget.”

Whether all 143 Conservative MPs will be voting against it on Monday is another matter. Poilievre’s office did not respond when asked if that would be the case.

In the two other confidence votes on the Bloc Québécois amendment and the Conservative sub-amendment on the budget , four of their MPs were notably absent from the voting records: Matt Jeneroux, Shannon Stubbs, Laila Goodridge and Michael Chong.

Jeneroux had just announced that he would be stepping down as MP , so his mind was understandably elsewhere. Goodridge and Chong were on pre-approved international travels but have both indicated they would be present for the budget vote on Nov. 17.

Stubbs’ office did not respond immediately, but she has reportedly been on medical leave.

The decision might come down to the NDP. If their MPs decide to vote against the budget, having just a handful of Conservatives being suddenly unable to vote because of technical issues or having a sudden urge to go to the washroom could prevent an early election.

It has been seen before. Paul Martin’s Liberal 2005 budget survived thanks to abstentions from Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. And Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion’s troops notably abstained from confidence votes during Harper’s first mandate to prevent an election.

But technology has since evolved, and MPs have been able to cast their votes remotely from a secure electronic voting application since 2023, so not being able to show up in-person for a vote does not hold as much water.

Of course, Liberals are still hoping to sway more Conservatives to cross the floor, like Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont, and get their coveted majority. But the situation seems to be contained and Conservatives have said publicly they do not expect more MPs to leave.

Of course, these previous scenarios could go out the window if opposition parties pull together and decide to use their two-person majority to vote against the government.

Political parties have been quietly preparing themselves for an early election in the background — something they claim is a regular practice in a minority government — but there is no real sense that Canadians will be headed to the polls during the holidays.

While some MPs have joked that they have been dusting off their election signs, an imminent election usually implies parties reserving planes and buses and coordinating with the RCMP to protect the party leaders during a cross-country tour.

None of that flurry of activity has reportedly been happening, which means that parties would be caught on their back foot if the government actually ends up falling.

Of course, mistakes can happen.

That was the case in 1979 when Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservative government unexpectedly fell during a budget vote after only six months in power. Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau went on to form a majority Liberal government after the 1980 election.

National Post calevesque@postmedia.com

• Most Canadians say Liberals falling short, but still approve of Carney: poll
• After towering deficit and focus on competition, finance minister says he's just getting started

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.