Analysts are torn on whether Ottawa’s next U.S. ambassador will be able to change the tone

The posh digs of the Canadian ambassador to the United States are set to welcome a new tenant early next year, following the recent announcement that Ambassador Kirsten Hillman – the first woman to serve as Canada’s top diplomat in Washington — is stepping down .

The ambassador told Prime Minister Mark Carney last spring of her intention to resign ahead of next summer’s joint review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

Hillman was appointed in March 2020, having been made the acting ambassador the year before, and she served as the deputy ambassador before that. She led the first renegotiation of CUSMA during President Donald Trump’s first term and helped secure the release of the two Michaels — Kovrig and  Spavor — who were detained in China for alleged espionage for three years.

“The woman is a national hero …,” said Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, a project of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, of Hillman. “… We should give her the Order of Canada or a knighthood or something.”

Andrew Hale, a senior policy fellow at Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., does not think this is a good time for changing ambassadors. He said Carney should beg Hillman to stay in place.

Given Hillman’s diplomatic experience and the unusual circumstances of Trump’s trade war, Hale said, “the Canadian Government should ask her to stay for the sake of continuity and the expertise she brings to the table.”

While an official announcement has not yet been made about Hillman’s successor, the post is widely rumoured to be going to Mark Wiseman, a friend of Carney’s. Reuters reported last week that Carney appointed Wiseman and that his cabinet had approved it.

Wiseman is a well-known financier who has served as chair of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation’s board of directors, as senior managing director of BlackRock, and as president and CEO of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. He was also appointed earlier this year to Carney’s advisory council on Canada-U.S. relations.

Wiseman has no history as a diplomat, and some are concerned by his past critiques of Ottawa’s long commitment to supply management, which regulates the production, pricing, and importation of agricultural goods.

Conservatives have also questioned whether Wiseman is right for the role, given that he cofounded the Century Initiative, a group that controversially lobbies for raising Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100.

Given this year’s trade tensions and Trump’s talk of making Canada the 51st state, Ottawa’s ambassador to the U.S. will undoubtedly have plenty to do for the foreseeable future. So does the tenant swap in D.C.’s upscale Woodley Park neighbourhood signal a change of diplomatic tone from Canada? Or perhaps something about Carney’s likely approach to supply management in trade talks?

Whatever led to Hillman’s decision, her resignation means a reset for Canadian diplomacy. Analysts are torn, however, over whether there will be a strong signal of directional change.

Former U.S. ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, said Hillman has been “spectacular” and will be a tough act to follow.

“She was an experienced, steady hand, a valuable adviser, a significant participant in all forms of negotiations between Canada and the U.S., but a particular strength in the trade context,” Cohen said.

Still, Cohen doesn’t see any new name signalling much to the White House.

“I don’t think the United States is going to take any major signalling from a change in Canada’s ambassador to the United States,” Cohen said.

As for how the changing of the guard could impact trade talks, Cohen was sanguine. He described the role as being “like the conductor of the orchestra,” and not as one of the lead musicians — in this case, trade experts. The ambassador is there, Cohen said, to bring people together.

One thing America will be looking at, he added, is the successor’s relationship with Carney.

“As long as there’s a real relationship there, or a story to be told as to why the person was selected, I think that person will be effective on day one as Canada’s ambassador to the United States.”

The fact that Wiseman comes from a business background — much like Carney — is something Cohen finds encouraging.

“It’s not an easy job, but I think somebody like Mark Wiseman will be able to step into that role in a very, very capable way,” he said, adding that “successful business people bring a valuable dimension to the diplomatic service.”

The one signal the change does make, Cohen said, is to tell the White House “this is a person who we should deal with personally and substantively, because this is a person who is close to the prime minister.”

Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the McDonald Laurier Institute, agrees that Wiseman’s relationship with Carney is key.

“Having the imprimatur of the prime minister, I think, is important, and that can help with potentially getting things through,” Shimooka said, noting that Wiseman’s financial background also helps.

Some fear that Wiseman, having written in an op-ed last year that the agricultural supply management system is hurting productivity, could undermine the quota protection system Quebec farmers enjoy.

“Looking to our agricultural sector, the sacred cow of supply management, through its import restrictions, production quotas and price controls, secures the market for a protected group of settled players, impeding innovation and keeping prices artificially high for Canadian consumers,” Wiseman wrote in spring 2024.

Adding fuel, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has warned Carney against appointing Wiseman, noting that the latter has a “contempt for Quebec.”

Trump has targeted supply management quotas, demanding more U.S. dairy access to the Canadian market. And while some are concerned that Wiseman at the helm of U.S.-Canada relations could mean a looming change, Carney said this week that he will save supply management.

“We’ve been clear about our approach to supply management. We continue to stand by that. We will continue to protect supply management,” he told the press on Thursday.

Tronnes, for one, is much more concerned by Wiseman’s Century Initiative involvement and its potential to rile Trump’s base.

“I am concerned that his Century Initiative involvement will be an issue for the MAGAsphere,” she said.

Yet as CUSMA looms, Carney’s ambassador pick signals business-savvy continuity over ideological politics. Ottawa’s not shifting tone — it seems to be doubling down on pragmatic defence.

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