The debate may be loud, but separatist fears are cooling in Canada: poll

Despite a year that included referendum threats, court battles and renewed sovereignty rhetoric, Canadians appear less worried about the prospect of Quebec and Alberta separatism than they were a year ago, a new poll revealed.

According to a survey conducted for the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS), concern over separation has cooled somewhat since last spring, with respondents appearing to view both movements with less urgency than those who were polled in May 2025.

During that survey, when asked if the threat of separation should be taken very seriously, 52 per cent of all people said yes for Alberta and 42 per cent agreed for Quebec. Agreement was highest among those provinces’ respondents — 63 per cent of Albertans and 47 per cent of Quebecers.

“I think there was more fever about this thing at the time,” ASC President Jack Jedwab told National Post.

“I think that’s diminished, and people are now, in particular in Quebec, beginning to feel that they’ve seen this film before. Whereas in Alberta, there’s still a bit more of the imponderable or uncertainty about where this is all going.”

While the question was worded differently in the most recent poll — “Are you worried about the threat” of either province’s separation from Canada — a subsided concern was evident.

Just 26 per cent of all respondents said they were worried about Alberta, and only 18 per cent said the same of Quebec.

Jedwab also attributed some of the lowered concern to recent political and legal developments, namely the Alberta Court of King’s Bench decision to strike down the Stay Free Alberta petition to force a referendum on separation, ruling that the province failed to consult First Nations on treaty rights implications, which came just before the poll was conducted.

Premier Danielle Smith later said this October’s referendum would be modified to ask citizens whether the province should remain a part of Canada or begin the legal process to hold another referendum on separation.

Regardless, Jedwab said, “it feels more diluted in terms of what it might have been prior to the machinations of the past two weeks.”

As for Quebec, Jedwab thinks the reduced unease is partially a result of the Parti Québécois losing ground ahead of this fall’s general election — the most recent Leger poll , for instance, has them almost neck-and-neck with the Liberals and the Coalition Avenir Québec surging on the popularity of new leader, Premier Christine Fréchette.

Jedwab also suggested the PQ has pulled back on sovereignty “being something that would immediately emerge in the event of election victory.” In his view, it’s a subject that would come up later.

“You have to have an election first and we don’t know after the election what the timing would be, whereas the Alberta one is very fixated on something that’s going to happen in October,” he said.

Albertans were the most likely to express concern about their province separating (39 per cent), while Anglophones in Quebec (41 per cent) are most anxious about theirs.

The results also indicate a correlation between concern and a respondent’s geographic proximity to either province.

“If you’re in Alberta, you’re going to be a lot less caring of what’s going on in Quebec than you are in Alberta, where the issues are more in your face, presumably, than they are on the other end of the country.”

The pattern was reflected in neighbouring provinces B.C. and Saskatchewan, where respondents shared comparatively greater concerns about Alberta separation than Quebec — 29 and 21 per cent, respectively, versus 16 and 8 per cent.

The survey also found Indigenous respondents expressed much higher concern about separation movements in both Alberta (42 per cent) and Quebec (29 per cent) than non-Indigenous respondents (26 and 19 per cent, respectively).

“That may be a partial explanation at least for the Indigenous leadership’s move to intervene here, reflecting that higher degree of concern in Alberta and not insignificant in Quebec either,” Jedwab said.

“It hasn’t been as much of an issue in the past, but based on what we’ve seen in Alberta, it may be an issue in Quebec at some point down the line again.”

Despite the relative decline in anxiety overall, Jedwab reasoned the issue is unlikely to disappear soon, particularly with both votes in October.

“There’ll clearly be more to say about this issue,” he said.

The poll, conducted by Leger between May 15-17, surveyed 1,511 individuals. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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