The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma

Poll analysts will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.

This is why it helps, from time to time, to look back at where we were and where we are—to test whether earlier interpretations still hold. Back in August, shortly after Pierre Poilievre was duly elected member of Parliament for Battle River—Crowfoot, I wrote for The Walrus: “Every move this fall—in the Commons, in public messaging, even on social media—will be scrutinized as if part of an updated résumé to be submitted [at the national convention] in Calgary.” This convention, happening in January, is where delegates will vote on whether Poilievre remains leader.

For its end-of-year federal survey, Leger measured not only views on Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government but also public impressions of the Conservative leader—including whether he should continue to lead his party. Let’s explore these numbers. First Carney, then the man who hopes to replace him.

• Poilievre Prepares for His Second Act
• Can Carney Build a New Majority Around the Promise of Getting Things Done?
• Pierre Poilievre’s Toughest Audience Yet: His Own Party

The Carney government ends 2025 in a position best described as fragile yet stable. Nationally, 51 percent of Canadians approve of the job Carney is doing as prime minister, compared with 38 percent who disapprove—a respectable +13 net approval for any government in its fourth term.

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Regionally, Carney posts robust approval in Ontario (net +22), Atlantic Canada (+27), Quebec (+10), and even the Prairies (+15). The Prairie numbers may be a touch anomalous (current polling averages don’t show the Liberals doing that well in the region, for instance), but the other regions form the backbone of the 2025 Liberal coalition, and this late-year data suggests Carney personally remains the one holding it together, as Carney’s own numbers outshine those of his party.

The picture is more challenging in British Columbia—where the Liberals won a healthy twenty seats in April. Last month, Leger’s poll had Carney’s approval at a net +11 in the province, but these numbers have fallen since: 46 percent approve of the Carney government while just as many disapprove. A net-zero approval in a province so central to Liberal gains should set off alarm bells at the party headquarters. What happened? Statistical noise or a direct effect of the Canada–Alberta memorandum of understanding on a potential pipeline linking Alberta to the Pacific coast? We need more data.

As for Alberta, it remains Carney’s toughest region: 40 percent approval versus 49 percent disapproval (net −9). The MOU may yet shift opinions in 2026, but it is too early to tell.

Carney’s approval also shows a clear rebound from an early-fall dip. In early October, his approval had slid to 47 percent amid pre-budget tensions and cabinet turbulence. By late November, he had climbed back above the 50 percent threshold.

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Again, recent political developments may not yet have fully registered with the public, so caution is warranted. Still, the broad trend suggests Carney ends the year stronger than he began the fall.

If Carney’s numbers show resilience, Poilievre’s numbers show stasis. Leger asked its panel: “Overall, how satisfied are you with the way Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre is performing his role?” Nationally, 31 percent of Canadians are satisfied with his performance, while 53 percent are dissatisfied. For a leader heading into a mandatory review, these are sobering figures.

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Only in Alberta does Poilievre score a net-positive satisfaction rating (+9). Even that margin is modest by historical Conservative standards. Elsewhere, his numbers are strikingly poor: 32 percent satisfaction in BC (net −24), 31 percent in Ontario (net −23), and a steep net −38 rating in Quebec.

Here lies the political paradox defining the Conservative Party at the close of 2025: national voting intentions still show the Conservatives hovering near 40 percent, often statistically tied with the Liberals.

The 338Canada seat projection continues to show the Conservatives competitive in key regions and within striking distance of the incumbent Liberals. However, Carney receives some support from voters outside the Liberal base, while Poilievre remains deeply disliked by non–Conservative Party voters.

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Leger finds that 78 percent of Conservative voters are satisfied with Poilievre, against only 15 percent who are dissatisfied—a net +63. Among Liberal, Bloc Québécois, and New Democratic Party voters, however, Poilievre’s favourables barely register. By contrast, Carney enjoys a net +18 approval among NDP voters (55 percent approve, 37 percent disapprove). And while Carney’s approval among Bloc supporters is a weak −24, he is miles ahead of Poilievre among that same group, where fully 73 percent are dissatisfied (net satisfaction of −58).

Unpopular leaders can win elections when the incumbent is even less popular. But that is simply not the case here: among the general electorate, the polling consensus in 2025 is that Carney’s numbers outpace Poilievre’s by a significant margin.

This brings us to January, when Poilievre faces a confidence vote at the Conservative National Convention in Calgary. Leger asked: “Would you like Pierre Poilievre to remain as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, or to step down?”

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Half of respondents (49 percent) want Poilievre gone, while only 32 percent want him to stay. East of the Manitoba–Ontario border and in BC, majorities would prefer the Conservatives to replace their leader.

But leadership reviews are not decided by the general electorate. They are decided by members: activists and volunteers who tend to be far more ideologically aligned with the leader than the public at large. The gap between Poilievre’s internal support and his public image has been a defining feature of his leadership, and could certainly shape January’s vote.

Breaking down responses by partisan preference, Leger finds that 78 percent of Conservative voters want to stick with Poilievre, against only 13 percent who want him to step down.

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While not unanimous, these results clearly indicate most Conservative voters intend to stand by their leader. Given the likelihood that the party membership is even more favourable to Poilievre than the voter base, he could walk away from the Calgary convention with a decisive endorsement—perhaps even in the 90 percent range.

Leger’s data paints a picture of two parties heading into 2026 from sharply contrasting positions. The Liberal coalition that assembled under Carney could seriously erode if New Democrats rally around their new leader next spring or if soft-nationalist voters in suburban Montreal drift back to the Bloc. The duct tape holding this coalition together is Carney’s personal popularity, an adhesive with a notoriously short half-life in national politics.

The Conservatives, meanwhile—led by a man whose unpopularity is matched only by his perseverance—remain electorally competitive despite their leader. But beyond what party members will decide in Calgary, another vulnerability is emerging: caucus management.

As Ian Fleming famously wrote in Goldfinger, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” Losing Acadie—Annapolis MP Chris d’Entremont to the Liberals could be dismissed as happenstance. The retirement announcement of Edmonton—Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux remains nebulous and may well be coincidental. But last week’s floor crossing by Markham—Unionville MP Michael Ma now moves this pattern into more dangerous territory.

Whether the party acts on the warning signs is another matter. It will have a clear opportunity to replace Poilievre in January, but Conservative voters appear to have little appetite to do so. If anything, the numbers suggest they are prepared to follow him through hell and high water.