Liberals reach 47% voter support after Carney's Davos, China trip: Leger poll

OTTAWA — Canada’s Liberals have received another boost in voter support after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent tour to China and Davos, Switzerland, with nearly half of Canadians now saying they would likely vote Liberal if a federal election were held today.

The Postmedia-Leger poll was taken Jan. 23–26 , after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade negotiations with Beijing and his widely covered speech to the World Economic Forum warning against truckling to “hegemons.” It found 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, a significant four-point jump compared to an early December Postmedia-Leger poll .

It also shows that satisfaction in the Carney government jumped nine points to 58 per cent and Carney’s own popularity increased by eight points to 59 per cent in the same period.

The poll shows the Liberals’ lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, at 38 per cent, has increased to nine points ahead of the opposition party’s convention that will see Poilievre’s support tested by a leadership review in Calgary this weekend.

The poll shows Conservative support increased two points, to 38 per cent.

The online poll, which surveyed 1,611 Canadians, was conducted just days after Carney’s widely noticed speech in Davos about middle powers having to stand up to big ones, and an annoyed response by U.S. President Donald Trump who said Canada was not “grateful” for U.S. help.

“It was a strong speech,” Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns said in an interview. “It’s not often that a speech can have this level of impact… it gets that patriotic mojo going again in Canada.”

But beyond Carney’s words, Trump’s reaction to the speech, in which he claimed that Canada only “lives” because of the U.S., also boosted the Liberals’ fortunes, Enns added.

“People rallied” when hearing that, Enns said. “When someone’s attacking your leader and suggesting he’s not grateful, that he should be careful, I think you’re going to see a positive response by a lot of Canadians, and certainly that older population.”

Carney’s gains appear to be entirely at the cost of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois, whom Enns say have effectively “disappeared” from public discourse for different reasons over the last few months.

The Bloc has much to be concerned about, Enns said, as the poll shows its support has dropped a whopping 12 points in Quebec since December, going from 38 per cent to 26 per cent.

On the flip side, Liberal support in Quebec sits at 46 per cent, over three points higher than the party’s 2025 election result that saw it win 44 of the province’s 78 ridings.

The pollster said it’s been difficult for Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet to carve out space in Quebec media in recent months due to the Quebec Liberal party’s “meltdown” over corruption allegations, followed by CAQ leader and Premier François Legault’s sudden resignation announcement earlier this month.

“Even in this last 10-day period, there hasn’t been really much of a narrative for the Bloc to step up and talk about things,” he noted.

The NDP’s support dropped three points to five per cent since early December, likely related to the party’s leadership race that is garnering low interest among the Canadian public, he added.

As Poilievre, the Conservative leader, heads to Calgary for his party’s general meeting this weekend, the pollster said he’s likely to focus on issues that poll strongly for him, particularly affordability, while being cautious of overly criticizing Carney.

The recent poll suggests that one in four Conservatives (24 per cent) say they are satisfied with Carney’s government.

“Poilievre has to acknowledge that it’s an uphill battle,” Enns said. “Some Tories would say that Mark Carney’s governing like one of those old Progressive Conservative prime ministers would govern.”

This was an online poll, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.44 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

National Post

cnardi@postmedia.com

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