Think tank touts Quebec LNG proposal as gateway to European market

OTTAWA — A free-market think tank is calling for a proposed Quebec liquefied natural gas (LNG) project to be fast-tracked, arguing that Canada must act quickly to position itself as a major supplier to a rapidly changing European market.

The Montreal Economic Institute (MEI) says in a new report that a Quebec-based natural gas liquefaction project like the one sought by Norwegian multinational Marinvest would give Canada a toehold in Europe’s US$40-billion LNG market .

The report says Europe’s “looming reconfiguration of gas supplies” opens the door to Canadian LNG, noting that the continent’s natural gas mix has been in flux since it cut ties with former top supplier Russia over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

It also notes that hydrocarbon production in Norway, a critical stopgap supplier to Europe, has already peaked and is expected to fall by about 30 per cent in the next decade.

“The Marinvest project arrives at a critical juncture, with Europe looking not only to replace its Russian natural gas supply, but also its supply from Norway, which is anticipating a drop in production,” said author Gabriel Giguère, a senior policy analyst at MEI.

Giguère writes that the project’s proposed site on Quebec’s northeast coast would have a “significant geographical advantage” over export hubs in the U.S. and Qatar, with a much closer proximity to “high-capacity” import terminals in Western Europe.

He estimates that a Quebec LNG facility with the capacity of the one proposed by Marinvest could have supplied 6.2 per cent of total European imports in 2024, generating roughly US$2.5 billion in revenue.

Giguère stressed there’s no time to dither, with Middle Eastern producers already jockeying to fill this gap. For example, Qatar signed a 15-year LNG supply deal with Germany — the continent’s largest gas buyer — in 2022. Under the agreement, Qatar will deliver 2 million tons of LNG annually, with the first shipments scheduled to begin this year.

Marinvest announced in July 2025 that it was pursuing a new “mega LNG project” in northeastern Quebec, comprising a liquefaction plant and marine LNG export terminal. The project is expected to be similar in scale to the shelved $14-billion GNL Quebec project , which was quashed by provincial regulators in 2021 after a six-year review.

Giguère said the project should be expedited under federal major projects legislation and a similar priority projects bill currently making its way through Quebec’s National Assembly.

“I truly believe Marinvest could be a pivotal turning point for Quebec’s economy and the way we approach developing our natural resources,” said Giguère.

He said the province would also have to reverse it’s 2022 ban on oil and gas exploration and production for the project to go forward.

Quebec Environment Minister Benoit Charette said in the summer that he was “open” to the Marinvest project.

The project has also been on the lips of federal Energy Minister Tim Hodgson, who said in October that it was too early to say if it was of national importance.

Heather Exner-Pirot, the director of natural resources, energy and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said that one factor working in Marinvest’s favour is that Europe is now keen to diversify away from an increasingly hostile U.S., which currently supplies about 60 per cent of its LNG exports .

“(Europe) went from Russian dependence to American dependence, which is obviously unpalatable right now,” said Exner-Pirot. “They want to diversify and any redundancy would be welcome.”

Exner-Pirot said it would be challenging for Canadian LNG to get a foothold in the European market, with a looming supply glut expected to keep prices low in the short to medium-term. However, she added that some buyers may be willing to pay extra to avoid being dependent on a single supplier.

“It doesn’t work on a pure economics basis, but someone may pay a premium for diversity,” said Exner-Pirot.

National Post rmohamed@postmedia.com

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