Conservatives Are Competitive. Pierre Poilievre Isn’t

Pierre Poilievre gambled with his political future—and won—at the Conservative Party of Canada convention in Calgary two weeks ago. Delegates, who gathered under unseasonably warm January skies courtesy of a timely Chinook, were asked whether to grant their leader a vote of confidence. Late that Friday night, the verdict was delivered: 87.4 percent of those who cast a ballot voted to keep Poilievre at the helm for another round.

Was there ever any real doubt? At first glance, recent polling suggests not. Despite currently trailing the Liberals in both vote intention and seat projections, the Conservatives remain electorally competitive. The party continues to benefit from a solid and loyal voter base, and should the Liberals stumble in the short or medium term, it would not take a dramatic shift in the polls for the Conservatives to reclaim front-runner status.

And yet, when one scratches beneath the surface, the picture becomes more complicated. The challenge facing the Conservatives appears less about the party brand itself than about Poilievre personally. A growing body of polling conducted before and after the convention does not point to an immediate crisis—but it does raise increasingly persistent questions about Poilievre’s ability to broaden, and stabilize, his electoral coalition.

These are not mere statistical fluctuations. Multiple recent surveys from reputable polling firms point to a measurable shift in the mood of the Canadian electorate—a shift that, so far, has not worked in Poilievre’s favour.

• Poilievre Isn’t Pivoting. His Party Just Made That Very Clear
• Pierre Poilievre Needs to Win Over More Voters. What’s His Plan?
• The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma

On voting intentions alone, the Liberals’ advantage has become more pronounced in recent weeks. Since the fall, most polls had placed Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead by a modest average of about two points. However, surveys published after the prime minister’s speech in Davos—and amid renewed international tensions sparked by United States president Donald Trump’s rhetoric toward Greenland, Denmark, and NATO allies—suggest a widening gap between the two main parties.

Since mid-January, polls have shown Liberal leads ranging from two points (Abacus Data) to as many as nine points (Leger). Earlier this month, Mainstreet Research measured Liberal support at 51 percent, a full fifteen points ahead of the Conservatives—a moderate outlier, perhaps, but one that still reinforces the broader trend.

Considering that the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives was just 2.5 points in the April 2025 election, there is little doubt that the governing party now finds itself in a more advantageous position than it did this past spring. Political moods can turn quickly, but for now, the momentum has clearly favoured the Liberals.

That momentum is also reflected beyond the horse race. Across the board, pollsters have recorded a sharp rise in government approval through January—a shift too consistent across firms to dismiss as statistical noise. Leger measured an eight-point increase in approval for Carney’s government, from 51 percent to 59 percent, with net approval jumping from a net plus thirteen to plus twenty-five. The Angus Reid Institute observed an almost identical pattern, with approval rising from 52 percent in November to 60 percent in January, and net approval improving from plus thirteen to plus twenty-six. Other firms, including Abacus Data and Liaison Strategies, detected similar gains.

window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});

Voting intentions and government approval provide important context for understanding the current political environment. But in an era of heightened polarization, leaders’ personal ratings increasingly act as a ceiling—or a constraint—on their parties’ electoral potential. On that front, recent polling signals have been far less encouraging for Poilievre.

Every major pollster cited above has measured either declining or stagnant impressions of the Conservative leader. While question wording varies slightly, the results converge around a clear pattern. Angus Reid places Poilievre’s net approval at minus twenty-two, with 58 percent holding unfavourable views versus 36 percent favourable. Liaison Strategies finds a nearly identical balance, at minus twenty. Abacus Data, which allows respondents to express neutrality, still records only 35 percent positive impressions—roughly in line with the Conservatives’ national vote share.

Poilievre has successfully mobilized his base. What remains elusive is sustained growth beyond it—an essential requirement for winning a general election.

window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});

Regional breakdowns further illustrate the scale of the challenge. In the latest Angus Reid polling, Pierre Poilievre posts negative net favourability in every region except Alberta—and often by wide margins: minus sixteen in British Columbia, minus twenty-four in Atlantic Canada, minus twenty-six in Ontario, minus twenty-seven in Manitoba, and a frigid minus thirty-three in Quebec. By contrast, Carney enjoys positive and rising approval in each of these regions.

Even in Alberta and Saskatchewan—provinces where the Conservatives captured over 60 percent of the vote in 2025—the results are more tepid than one might expect. Poilievre’s net rating in Alberta stands at just plus three, while he remains underwater in Saskatchewan at minus seven. For a federal Conservative leader, such lukewarm numbers on home turf are notable.

window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});

To be clear, a leader’s personal popularity is not a prerequisite for electoral success. Parties can, and sometimes do, outperform their leaders (in 1980, despite Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s low approval after years in power, the Liberals defeated Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservatives to win a majority government). But consistently unpopular leaders who manage to break through at the ballot box remain the exception rather than the rule.

Taken together, these findings point to a broader and more structural issue. Poilievre’s coalition may be narrower than it once appeared—and more fragile at its edges. Moderate Conservatives seem increasingly receptive to Carney’s centrist positioning, while a more populist wing, at times echoing Trump’s rhetoric and style, has grown more prominent within the Conservative base.

It was against this backdrop that Conservative delegates gathered in Calgary. The numbers never suggested that Poilievre faced an immediate threat to his leadership. But they do raise a longer-term question—less about his hold on the party today than about whether the coalition he leads is broad and resilient enough to prevent a fifth consecutive Conservative defeat at the hands of the Liberals.