With Boulerice eyeing Quebec politics, NDP's orange wave becomes a drought

OTTAWA — During the 2011 federal election, an “orange wave” crashed over much of Quebec and parts of Canada, electing the largest contingent of NDP MPs in the party’s history.

In 2026, the last of the wave’s MPs is expected to leave as the party faces a drought in Quebec.

On Monday, longtime Montreal NDP MP and the party’s only Quebec representative, Alexandre Boulerice, confirmed that he was seriously considering running in an upcoming nomination race for provincial democratic socialist party Quebec Solidaire (QS).

His departure would be a big blow to the federal NDP as Boulerice is the party’s sole MP in Quebec, where the party elected more than 50 MPs during the 2011 orange wave.

But over his 15 years with the NDP, Boulerice has watched the party’s numbers in the House of Commons dwindle from more than 100 to only seven since last spring.

Quebec Solidaire is in a similar position, seeing its support fall to just seven per cent in a recent Leger survey with Quebecers ready to head to provincial polls this fall.

In 2022, Quebec Solidaire won 15.4 per cent of the vote and elected 11 MNAs. Now, it’s projected to only win four, according to poll aggregator QC125.

Boulerice is quitting a federal political ship taking on water fast to another, provincial ship taking on just as much water. He says he’s well aware of that.

“If you believe in the polls, if I make the move, I’m not making it because I’m opportunistic. Because if you look at the numbers for Quebec Solidaire, I’m not making any change, if I do it, because I will be a minister,” he said with a laugh on Tuesday.

“If I do it, I hope that I will be able to increase the hope for the progressive and left to wing party in Quebec.”

Despite Boulerice’s stated indecision, QS is going out of its way to make way for the MP.

During the party’s convention last weekend, delegates even voted overwhelming to remove the one obstacle in their rules barring Boulerice from running in the imminent nomination race in the Gouin riding: the fact that he’s a man.

A few years ago, QS adopted a rule stating that only a woman or a non-binary person could run to be candidate in a riding held by the party. The idea was to make way for more women and non-binary individuals in provincial politics.

But that created an issue when party leadership realized that Boulerice would be interested in running in the Montreal-riding of Gouin to replace QS’s former co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (QS does not have a single leader but two spokespeople, generally of different genders).

So, party delegates voted overwhelmingly (74 per cent) last weekend to create an exception to the rule for an unidentified high-profile candidate to run in the riding that just happens to overlap with Boulerice’s federal seat of Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie.

“I am very happy with the result of the vote,” co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal said in a statement. “It is a strong choice that will allow us to build a united, inspiring and experienced team for 2026.”

So, what’s keeping Boulerice from jumping ship?

On Tuesday, he said he was still weighing personal considerations before deciding if he jumped into the provincial fray.

“Do I want to go to the National Assembly? Do I have the energy? Are there family issues? It’s mostly personal reflections that could play a role. But one thing is certain: it has nothing to do with the NDP leadership race,” Boulerice said.

But the reality is that Quebec Solidaire hasn’t even launched the nomination race in Gouin, meaning there’s no campaign for him to run yet.

And listening to him speak about QS, you’d be forgiven if you thought his choice was all but made.

Quebec Solidaire is a “natural” fit for him as he frets that Quebec’s government is leaning too much to the right on identity politics, immigration and social issues, he said on Tuesday.

And after six consecutive federal elections — five of which he won — he’s thinking about change, he added Tuesday.

“I’m thinking about it more seriously now than ever maybe because, you know, I won five consecutive elections in Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie. I’ve been here for 15 years,” he said.

“I can continue, or maybe I can, you know, go somewhere else and have new challenges.”

But after 15 years representing a federalist party in Ottawa, does Boulerice believe in a sovereign Quebec like QS does?

All he’ll say is that he voted “yes” in the referendum over 30 years ago.

He also swears that his potential departure is not an indictment of the NDP or the quality of current leadership candidates, most of whom struggle to string together a full sentence in French .

The MP said he would be at the NDP convention in Winnipeg in March to vote for the next leader, but would not say if he would delay his decision to join QS until after that.

National Post

cnardi@postmedia.com

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