Stay informed
Carneymania Sweeps the Country. Yes, Even Quebec and Alberta
A little less than a year after the April 2025 federal election, public opinion data continues to break strongly in favour of Mark Carney’s Liberal government.
The latest federal poll by Leger suggests the Liberal Party now holds a substantial lead in voting intentions. The survey, conducted from February 27 to March 2 among 1,627 respondents, puts the Liberals at 49 percent support among Canadian voters, compared to 35 percent for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
It is the largest Liberal advantage measured by Leger since the summer of 2020.
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
In Quebec, the Liberals command 48 percent of voting intentions in the Leger poll—twenty-three points ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 25 percent. That margin dwarfs last April’s election, when the Liberals won the province by fifteen points.
But Liberal dominance extends well beyond Quebec. Leger shows the party leading by sixteen points in Ontario and thirteen points in British Columbia. If an election were held today, the Liberals would cruise to a comfortable majority. The latest 338Canada projection gives them an average of 201 seats—far above the 172 needed to control the House of Commons.
This rise in voting intentions tracks closely with the Carney government’s especially high approval ratings. When asked, “Thinking about Prime Minister Carney and his performance so far, do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?” 61 percent of Canadians approve, compared to 31 percent who disapprove.
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
A two-to-one approval rating is extremely rare at the federal level, regardless of the political party in power—and even more so for a government that has been in office for more than a decade.
The Quebec numbers are just as striking. When asked, 60 percent of Quebecers say they are satisfied with the federal government’s performance—roughly in line with the national average—while only 25 percent say they are dissatisfied, for a net rating of plus thirty-five.
Equally remarkable is that the former banker enjoys positive ratings in every region of the country, including Alberta. In a province long hostile to Liberal governments, 53 percent of respondents give the prime minister favourable marks, compared with 41 percent who take a negative view.
Among Liberal voters, support for the Carney government is nearly unanimous, at 95 percent. But breaking down the data by partisan affiliation reveals another dimension of the Carneymania.
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
A majority of New Democratic voters back the government. Nearly half of Bloc Québécois voters do too. Even among Conservatives, about one in four voters says the prime minister is doing a good job. This cross-party support helps explain the Liberals’ current lead in voting intentions and Carney’s historically high personal approval numbers.
Nanos Research’s rolling poll tells the same story. In its most recent update (March 6, 2026), 57 percent of Canadians chose Carney as the best choice for prime minister, compared to just 22 percent for Poilievre.
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
This represents a Grand Canyon-esque thirty-five-point lead for the prime minister, the largest measured by Nanos since Carney took over as leader of the Liberal Party in 2025, according to 338 calculations. We are therefore no longer in a post-election honeymoon period. After nearly a year in power, Carney still seems capable of attracting support well beyond his party’s traditional base.
Looking at these figures, one might think that Liberal strategists would feel an insatiable itch to call a snap election in order to turn this advantage into a strong majority mandate.
The prime minister enjoys high approval, his party leads rivals in all the recent polls, and his main opponent, Poilievre, suffers from a lack of appreciation from voters. In a face-to-face duel between Carney and Poilievre—with a weakened NDP and a Bloc far behind in Quebec—virtually every horse-race data available suggest the Liberals would be massive favourites.
And yet, one piece of data complicates this calculation: Canadians do not want an election. The numbers are very much unambiguous.
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
According to Leger, 49 percent of voters believe that the next federal election should be held in 2029, as stipulated by the Canada Elections Act. This preference is particularly strong among Liberal voters: 71 percent of them want to wait until 2029, as do a majority of Bloc Québécois and NDP voters.
Conversely, only 10 percent of respondents want an election as soon as possible, a group composed almost exclusively of Conservative voters. Among them, 24 percent want to vote immediately, and 39 percent prefer an election later in 2026.
Given the current political landscape, why are so many Conservative voters eager to return to the polls? Two hypotheses: one, some may want a quick rematch in the hope of ousting Carney, even if it is a risky gamble, and two, others may believe another election defeat would accelerate a renewal of Conservative leadership.
This political climate could soon be put to the test in a Quebec riding. Next month, Terrebonne voters will be called to the polls again following the Supreme Court’s annulment of last April’s election.
Terrebonne has long leaned Bloc. But if the polls reflect Quebec’s current mood, the Liberals may never face a better opportunity here. If they cannot win the seat now, it is difficult to imagine when they ever could.
* * *
The Leger federal poll can be found here. The most recent Nanos Research report is available here.
The post Carneymania Sweeps the Country. Yes, Even Quebec and Alberta first appeared on The Walrus.
Comments
Be the first to comment