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Energy crisis from Iran war worse than 1973, 1979 and 2022 crises combined, says International Energy Agency
The fuel crisis linked to the war with Iran is already worse than the combined crises from 1973, 1979 and 2022, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The countries most at risk are developing nations, says Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA. They would suffer more from higher oil and gas prices, higher food prices and general acceleration of inflation, reports The Guardian .
However, developed nations will also feel the impact, says Birol.
Two weeks ago, Birol warned that at least 40 energy assets in the Gulf region have been severely or very severely damaged , meaning that even an end to the conflict will not immediately restore the supply of energy.
He noted about five million barrels of oil were lost each day during the crises in 1973 and 1979. Then in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine removed about 75 billion cubic metres of natural gas from international markets.
But he warned that the current crisis already represents the loss of 11 million barrels of oil per day and about 140 billion cubic metres of gas.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said the world is losing 11 million barrels of oil supply per day due to the war on Iran, exceeding the combined impact of the two oil crises of the 1970s, when global losses reached about five million barrels… pic.twitter.com/NGxMLDVnGv
— Megaphone News English (@MegaphoneNewsEN) March 23, 2026
Reuters is reporting that the Iran war has forced the shutdown of at least 12 million barrels per day — about 12 per cent of world supply — from the Middle East due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting shortage is driving up prices. On Tuesday, European and Asian refiners paid a record high $150 a barrel for some crude oil grades.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is warning a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran makes a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. He said passage through the strait should be part of any ceasefire deal.
He posted Tuesday on his Truth Social site that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” The previous day he set a deadline of Tuesday 8 p.m. ET for Iran to agree a deal with Washington or face fresh attacks on civil infrastructure, including power plants.
Before the war began, Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said she expected a small upgrade of its expectation for global growth in 2026 and 2027. But on Monday, she said the war will likely lead to higher inflation and slower global growth.
“(A)ll roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth … We are in a world of elevated uncertainty,” said Georgieva.
The Barrel of Oil Equivalent (BOE) Repor t, based in Calgary, is reporting that the leaders of the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will discuss the crisis next Monday.
Birol, Georgieva and the World Bank’s Ajay Banga agreed last week to form a coordination group, reports BOE. The aim is to help deal with the regional disruption that has caused one of the largest supply shortages in global energy market history.
“This energy crisis calls for all hands on deck & international cooperation,” Birol said on X Tuesday. He stressed the need for the three institutions to support governments worldwide amid the economic fallout from the war.
This energy crisis calls for all hands on deck & international cooperationI'll meet Monday with IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva & World Bank President Ajay Banga on our institutions' work to support governments amid the economic impacts of the Iran war https://t.co/fOQkzWAwGx pic.twitter.com/O6Zb46TpRS
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) April 7, 2026
The combined response mechanism could include targeted policy advice, assessing potential financing needs and providing support, including through low- or zero-percent financing, as well as unspecified risk mitigation tools.
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