Carney one seat away from majority as voters go to the polls in three federal byelections

OTTAWA — Voters head to the polls today in three federal byelections that are likely to hand Prime Minister Mark Carney a majority government.

The Liberals hold 171 seats in the House of Commons and need to win one of the three byelections to have a slim majority. Winning two of the byelections would let the party pass legislation without relying on the Speaker or support from the opposition parties .

The Liberals are heavy favourites in two Toronto ridings, University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, that were won handily by former cabinet ministers in the 2025 election. Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and former defence minister Bill Blair both announced their resignations earlier this year. The Quebec riding of Terrebonne is also up for grabs after the Supreme Court of Canada annulled the 2025 election result due to a ballot processing error.

Liberals told reporters on Monday that a majority government would help them deal with an increasingly unruly world.

“All I can say is, when you’re dealing with global uncertainty, certainty helps,” said Liberal MP Taleeb Noormohamed on Monday.

Liberal candidate Danielle Martin is running against Conservative candidate Donald Hodgson in the University—Rosedale riding, while Liberal candidate Doly Begum and Conservative candidate Diana Filipova are battling for the Scarborough Southwest seat.

Doly Begum, former deputy leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), resigned from provincial politics after being recruited by the federal Liberal party to run in this byelection.

Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste, who was named the MP for the riding until a court decision nullified the result, is facing a challenge from Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné in a rematch from last year’s election.

Since the 2025 election, the Liberals have courted five MPs to cross the floor, with longtime Ontario Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu being the last to cross on April 8.

Polls are open today between 8:30 a.m. and 8:30 p.m.

More to come.

National Post, with files from Stephanie Taylor

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