With high gas prices and a trade war, get ready for a long stretch of low cross-border travel

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Drivers are tiring of sticker shock at the pump.

Before U.S. President Donald Trump began waging war with Iran in late February, Canadians were paying roughly $1.32 a litre, while Americans were paying around US$2.98 per gallon. Today’s prices, on average, are about $1.75 per litre and US$4.03 per gallon, respectively.

If you drive a vehicle with a 14-gallon tank, that means a fill-up has gone from around $70 to $94 in Canada, and from roughly $41 in the U.S. up to $56 today. Most folks remember that fuel cost nearly 30 per cent less in both countries last year.

In Canadian and U.S. border communities that have already suffered a plunge in road trippers, with many blaming Trump’s tariffs and incendiary rhetoric, higher fuel prices are an added irritant that could push some businesses over the edge. So will North America still hit the road this driving season — or will weakened demand and higher costs keep people closer to home?

“(Higher gas prices) just make it worse,” said Mayor Mary Lou Seward, from Blaine, Washington, a dual U.S.-Canadian citizen.

“Everybody’s struggling… I’m not having to ask, ‘Can I drive my car or buy my medications? … But there are people that have to make that decision.”

Seward has already seen car-travel traffic from Canada to Blaine plummet over the past year and her border town is far from alone.

Overall, 30.9 per cent fewer Canadian automobiles visited the U.S. last year compared to 2024 and the trend continues. New data from Statistics Canada show that in February 2026 car trips to the U.S. fell 12.3 per cent to 1.2 million, and the majority, 71 per cent, were day trips.

Polling by Leger shows that the political climate and tensions with Washington were why 61 per cent of Canadians were less likely to travel to the U.S. last year. By early March 2026, just one week into the Iran conflict, that number had risen to 67 per cent.

“The overwhelming drive right now … is that pushback toward the Trump administration,” said Laurie Trautman, director of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University in Bellingham, who conducts regular polling at the border.

American visits to Canada last year, meanwhile, fell by 3 per cent, with a nearly 5 per cent drop in car arrivals, according to Statistics Canada. But this year, the trend has reversed, with U.S.-resident cross-border travel into Canada up by more than 6 per cent in February.

Staff at tourism offices on both sides of the border agree that travel to border-area America was largely being hurt by Trump’s trade war .

The “market has softened” because of tariff uncertainty and economic anxiety, and he noted that people tend to cut back on discretionary spending like tourism first, said Gordon Orr, the CEO of Tourism Windsor Essex Pelee Island.

Tourism attractions in the Niagara area saw a 10-12 per cent drop between 2024 and 2025 owing to lighter Canadian traffic, said Destination Niagara USA President and CEO John Percy.

The effects are being felt in less touristy places too, including Sault Ste. Marie in both Michigan and Ontario.

The president’s messaging as “almost unwelcoming,” said Travis Anderson, director of tourism and community development in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. He said the drop in Canadian visitors to his area’s Michigan counterpart is significant, likely in the double digits, a trend he pinned on the political climate.

Mayor Seward, meanwhile, says border traffic from Canada to Blaine is down around 40 per cent, which she blames fully on tariffs and Trump’s rhetoric. Canadians she knows are angry.

“They’re just like, ‘How dare you do this to us? We’ve been your best friends forever,’” she said, noting that the decline is hurting retail, tourism, restaurants, mail-order parcel businesses, and city tax revenue.

Another concern for Canadians is safety, said Trautman.

“What we are seeing is kind of this broader landscape of fear around these issues because there are these really heinous things happening,” she said, referring to an 85-year-old French woman being detained by ICE for 16 days.

“‘That could be me,’ they’re saying,” said Trautman.

Even fuel tourism, which once saw Canadians crossing over to fill up in her region, has dwindled. In 2018-19, as many as 20 per cent of cross-border travellers said gas was their main reason for crossing. In 2025, it was just two per cent.

There’s little reason to think the Iran-crisis-fuelled uptick in gasoline costs will spark fuel tourism anytime soon because the Canadian dollar is relatively weak.

In Washington, crossing for fuel is less worthwhile since a state gas tax was layered atop the existing carbon tax on fuel last year, shortly after Prime Minister Mark Carney dropped the federal carbon tax.

Tourism operators elsewhere also doubt they’ll see a resurgence in fuel tourism because gas is expensive in both countries. The bigger concern is that higher gas prices will further dampen cross-border travel.

The Leger poll mentioned earlier showed that high gas prices were a factor for 32 per cent of Canadians this year, compared to 29 per cent last year, and fuel costs have increased since the survey was conducted.

According to an April survey from U.S. News, 65 per cent of Americans have altered their summer travel plans because of increasing costs, with 42 per cent mentioning higher fuel prices specifically.

“Anytime that you increase the cost of travel, there’s a concern,” said Orr, in Windsor, Ontario.

“When you’re creeping over a dollar (increase in gas), is that going to play a significant role…? I would have to say yes,” said Percy, in Niagara.

“It’s just another reason not to travel … how many more factors can you pile on?” he added.

So cross-border travel, especially from Canada to the U.S., is likely to continue its decline — and it’s a trend that Trautman fears will be hard to reverse.

“The loss of trust isn’t just going to be fixed by a good trade negotiation,” said Trautman.

“I think we’re in a long-term period of relatively low cross-border travel.”

National Post

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