Conservatives gain ground in new poll, but Canadian politics is in a 'holding pattern'

OTTAWA — A Postmedia-Leger poll published this week shows the Conservatives narrowing the gap slightly on the Liberals, but satisfaction with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s performance remains high among Canadians overall.

Forty-eight per cent of Canadians said they support the Liberals, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives, when asked which political party they would vote for if a federal election were held today. That amounts to a modest increase of three percentage points for the Conservatives compared to a similar poll conducted eight weeks ago.

The NDP and Bloc Quebecois came in at six per cent support, an increase of one percentage point for both parties during the same period. Two per cent of respondents said they would vote for a Green Party candidate, while the “other parties” category registered only one per cent in overall voting intentions.

The survey collected responses from 1,521 Canadians 18 years of age or older between April 24 and April 26, 2026.

Despite the modest gain for the Conservatives, approval ratings for Carney remain high. Nationally, 57 per cent of respondents reported being satisfied with the performance of the Carney government, with 20 per cent indicating they are “very satisfied.” This compares to 35 per cent who said they are dissatisfied with the performance of the Carney government, while eight per cent indicated they aren’t sure.

These results may prove to be the “plateau” for Liberal support, said Andrew Enns, an executive vice-president for Leger, during an interview with National Post. Enns predicted voter preferences and approval ratings may now be in a “kind of holding pattern” that could endure for “the foreseeable future.”

Enns pointed to three events that have significantly impacted survey results during the past year-and-a-half. He said approval for the Conservatives reached a “high-water mark” in December 2024 soon after Chrystia Freeland resigned as finance minister following the release of an economic update by the Trudeau government.

However, the Liberals saw a boost in polling following a leadership change, when former prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned and Carney was elected as prime minister. This coincided with the third major development that impacted political opinion polls in Canada: the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

With the prospect of annexing Greenland and casting Canada as the “fifty-first state,” Enns said Canadians “really gravitated to Carney and the Liberals as a result” of the political rhetoric emanating from the Republican administration south of the border.

Enns highlighted the “massive societal shifts” such as voluntary boycotts of American products and sharp decline in travel to the United States that also drastically shaped political approval ratings and electoral results throughout Canada.

The poll also suggests the Carney government maintains high approval ratings even in provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives have historically been dominant. Enns said this may be attributable to perceptions that the prime minister and the conservative premiers in these provinces are “trying to work together” on initiatives that will benefit provincial, rather than exclusively federal, economic interests.

The poll included a sample of 1,521 respondents, made up of Canadians over the age of 18. The survey has a margin of error of no more than 2.51 per cent 19 times out of 20.

National Post

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