Colombia picks hard-line, right-wing populist as next president

BOGOTA – A populist outsider who promised hardline security measures, business-friendly policies and traditional Catholic family values — and won an endorsement from U.S. President Donald Trump — is set to become Colombia’s next president.

Abelardo de la Espriella won 49.66 per cent of votes in a run-off race on Sunday, according to the preliminary results. Self-dubbed “The Tiger,” de la Espriella built a base of die-hard fans across Colombia under the slogan “Stand Firm up for the Homeland,” with his supporters dubbed “Defenders of the Homeland.”

“We have restored democracy, security, freedom, and order,” declared Diana Tellez, an Abelardo supporter, at a victory rally in Bogota.

De la Espriella, a lawyer, narrowly beat leftist rival and continuity candidate Ivan Cepeda, who received 48.70 per cent of the so-called “pre-count.”

While Cepeda has not conceded defeat, analysts say it is unlikely that the vote verification process will change the final result, noting that the outcome highlights both frustration with the incumbent President Gustavo Petro administration and a polarized electorate.

Some 26 million went to the polls on Sunday, representing 63.60% of the country’s 41 million eligible voters.

Analysts argue that many voted for de la Espriella to protest Petro, Colombia’s first leftist president and the founder of the political movement behind Cepeda.

“Not all of those votes represent political capital for Abelardo de la Espriella in the sense of support for him; rather, many of them represent a protest vote against the Petro administration,” said Miguel Jaramillo Luján, a Colombian political strategist.

Petro’s policies on healthcare and security were deeply unpopular.

“A lot of Colombians have died due to a lack of medicine and a lack of medical care,” said Freddy Sarmiento, who described health care as his main reason for backing de la Espriella.

Many others criticized Petro’s “Total Peace” policy, which aims to negotiate with illegal armed groups.

De la Espriella, by contrast, promised an “iron fist” on organized crime in the mold of El Salvador’s wildly popular strongman Nayib Bukele. De la Espriella has repeatedly expressed his admiration for Bukele, and was invited to his inauguration in El Salvador in 2024. After his visit, de la Espriella described the Central American nation as “the best example in the world of what a country can achieve.”

Many note similarities in the two hardliners’ personal style: impeccably tailored suits, slicked back hair, and their signature goatees.

“The main change [under Abelardo] will likely be in the approach to security. We can expect a policy more focused on strengthening the state’s coercive capacity,” said Javier Florez, director of conflict and security at the Ideas for Peace foundation, an NGO.

De la Espriella, who is backed by the White House, has pledged a ‘Plan Colombia 2.0’, a reboot of the U.S.-backed crackdown against the FARC rebels in the early 2000s.

“If [de la Espriella] advances a total war strategy and iron fist security effort we are going to see much violence, humanitarian crises and abuses committed,” Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, director for the Andes at the Washington Office on Latin America, told National Post.

Most of the areas affected by the armed violence voted overwhelmingly in favour of Cepeda and his promise to continue peace negotiations; de la Espriella, meanwhile, was more popular in the interior of the country, where urban crime like robbery and extortion is a bigger concern.

Sunday’s results also reveal a deeply divided country, according to analysts.

“The main message tonight is that there are two Colombias,” said Florez. “Neither of the two political projects can claim to represent, on their own, an absolute majority of Colombians.”

The candidates were separated by just over 250,000 votes, while over 420,000 people voted in blank – the third option on the ballot.

The Cepeda campaign said it would not recognize de la Espriella’s win until the legally verified vote count – known as the scrutinized count – is released, adding it would challenge results at some 33,000 polling stations.

Petro backed the measures, writing on X: “No one can be declared president. It is the scrutinised count that determines who the president is.”

But U.S. President Donald Trump was quick to congratulate de la Espriella on his victory.

While some Cepeda supporters were skeptical of the results, repeating Petro’s frequent warnings about electoral fraud, others accepted defeat.

“We feel a deep sadness,” said Sara Cano. “However, we will still be out on the streets… continuing the work we have been doing and resisting hateful discourses and violence.”

Those in the Abelardo camp, meanwhile, are preparing for their candidate to take power in less than 50 days.

“Right now we can celebrate, we can feel joy in our hearts, but the work begins on Aug. 7, when our beloved president takes office,” said Sarmiento.

— Latin America Reports

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