Unpublished Opinions

Abacus Data

Ottawa, Ontario

About the author

Having conducted research for some of North America’s leading corporations and advocacy groups, we deliver global research capacities with the attention to detail and focus of a boutique firm. We have the capacity to conduct surveys, focus groups (on- and offline), membership surveys, elite and stakeholder consultations, and build online research communities. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. We all value integrity, hard work, and creativity believing good research insights come from an intense focus on our clients, rigourous methods, and occasionally challenging convention. Whether it is a public opinion study on a challenging issue or consumer research on likelihood to recommend, our team has the experience and energy to deliver deep insights on-time, on-budget, and with creative perspective. - See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/about/#sthash.euNpekw1.dpuf

Abacus Data: Liberal Rebound? Conservative lead drops to 10 over Liberals

December 22, 2023

This data comes from a national survey, conducted between December 7 to 12, 2023, with 1,919 adults, and finds a substantial shift in federal voting intentions.

The poll shows that if elections were held today, the Conservatives would secure 37% of the vote, down 5 from our last survey at the end of the November. The Liberals get 27%, up 4. In just over two weeks, a 19-point national Conservative lead has been reduced to 10-points.

What explains this change?

For there to be a 5-point drop in Conservative support and a 4-point rise in Liberal vote share, something must be happening around public opinion. The evidence from our survey suggests this shift is likely more about reaction to the Conservatives, and their decisions and behaviour over the past two weeks, than something the Liberals have been doing.

For example, we find that some core metrics for the Liberal government are largely unchanged. The mood of the country (direction of the country), the government's approval rating, the desire for change, and the Prime Minister's personal image are unchanged from last month.

But other indicators related to the Conservatives and their acceptability to some soft change voters seems to explain the drop

First, negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre are up three points since the end of November. Today, 36% have a favourable view of Mr. Poilievre while 36% have a negative impression.

Second, as we've noted in the past, about 1 in 3 Canadians say they want a change in government but indicate feeling uncomfortable with any of the alternatives. This group has hovered around 32% of the electorate since July when we started asking this question.

But it's the vote intention of this group that is important to assess.

Back in November, among this "soft change" group, the Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 28% among these group. Today, the Liberals have opened up a 16-point lead, gaining 8-points in two weeks. Something happened over the past two weeks to push these soft change voters back into the Liberal camp.

Third, we also see evidence that the Liberals have rebuilt some of their past voter coalition. At the end of November, 58% of those who said they voted Liberal in 2021 said they would vote Liberal again. 17% would vote Conservative while 9% would vote NDP. Today, 66% of past Liberal voters say they would vote Liberal again and only 7% would defect to the Conservatives. That's a 10-point drop in Liberal/Conservative switchers which is equivalent to 2% of the electorate or 3% of decided voters. This explains most of the growth in Liberal support.

Finally, we also see some evidence that the 2021 Conservative voter group may be fragmenting. At the end of November, 89% of past Conservative voters said they would vote Conservative again. Today, that number is down to 83%. That shift represents about 2% of decided voters and makes up the remainder of the Conservative drop.