Unpublished Opinions

Abacus Data

Ottawa, Ontario

About the author

Having conducted research for some of North America’s leading corporations and advocacy groups, we deliver global research capacities with the attention to detail and focus of a boutique firm. We have the capacity to conduct surveys, focus groups (on- and offline), membership surveys, elite and stakeholder consultations, and build online research communities. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. We all value integrity, hard work, and creativity believing good research insights come from an intense focus on our clients, rigourous methods, and occasionally challenging convention. Whether it is a public opinion study on a challenging issue or consumer research on likelihood to recommend, our team has the experience and energy to deliver deep insights on-time, on-budget, and with creative perspective. - See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/about/#sthash.euNpekw1.dpuf

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives open up a 19-point lead over the Liberals

February 11, 2024

Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre as young students write lines on the blackboard in detention. Poilivre: I will work constructively with others; Trudeau: I will learn from my mistakes.

Yesterday, our media partner - the Toronto Star - reported on our latest Canadian politics poll.

The survey of 2,398 Canadian adults from February 1 to 7, 2024, paints a detailed picture of the current political landscape, offering insights into how Canadians might cast their votes if an election were held today.

Key Survey Findings:

Conservative Lead: The Conservatives have opened up a commanding 19-point lead over the Liberals, marking a record tie for their largest national lead.
Voter Preferences: 43% of committed voters favor the Conservatives, followed by the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18%, and the Greens at 4%. In Quebec, the BQ stands at 34%.
Regional Strengths: The Conservatives show robust leads in the Prairies, British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, with the BQ leading in Quebec.
Demographic Trends: The Conservative lead spans all age groups, with Liberal support increasing with the age of respondents. The NDP sees the opposite trend.

Political Sentiments:

Federal government approval is at a low of 24%, the lowest since the Liberals took office in 2015. Disapproval of the federal government's performance is at 59%.
Justin Trudeau's negative impression stands at 57% (with a net score of -33), while Pierre Poilievre receives a net positive score of +2.

My Analysis:

The political environment continues to be deeply troubling for the Liberals. An historically low approval rating along with an electorate who few see good things in the federal government has led to a 19-point Conservative lead.

As I’ve noted before, we are not experience a period of Poilievre-mania. The Conservative lead – built from those who haven’t voted Conservative in the past two elections – is more about a rejection of the Liberals than an embrace of the Conservatives. That still remains a liability for the Conservatives.

But as long as people remain fatigued with Trudeau and unhappy with how the federal government is handling the key issues they care about, the Liberals will fail to rebuild their past coalition.

To view the poll in its entirety please visit our website: https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-conservatives-poilievre-lead-19-libera...