Cost of Occupation: Why American Invaders Would Face a Canadian Quagmire

Recent statements from former high-ranking Canadian officials and experts have raised concerns about the United States' intentions towards Canada. Ward Elcock, former head of CSIS, and Dick Fadden, also a former CSIS head, have expressed worries about American interference in Canadian politics. "I would regard Mr. Musk as a problem," Ward Elcock told CBC, who headed CSIS for a decade including during the 9/11 attacks and also served as National Security Adviser for former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, "I think that's on a number of fronts." 

"Is [Trump] trying to change political views in this country? If so, that's foreign interference," Dick Fadden told the CBC, who also headed CSIS and served as National Security Adviser to former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

"It's no more acceptable from the United States than it is from China or Russia or anybody else."

However, it's Malcolm Nance's alarming claim that's particularly noteworthy – the former US Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer who specialized in naval cryptology; and who is now an intelligence and foreign policy analyst stated during a live Twitter Space on Thursday March 13th 2025, “they [the Trump administration] intend for Canada to be broken. They’re drafting up a plan to invade Canada. It’s not a joke” and he went on to say, “Canada has approximately 18 months to prepare.”

 The President of the United States, Donald Trump, now talks about why Canada should not be a sovereign nation on a weekly or daily basis. And he doesn’t recognize the demarcation lines between Canada and the United States. Basically he talks about Canada the same way Putin talks about Ukraine or Xi Jinping talks about Taiwan. Recently Trump ominously said "we have to do this and I'm sorry, we have to do this" and "now there will be a little disruption, but it won't be very long"  leaving many wondering if he is talking about tariffs, or an invasion...

In the face of a potential land invasion, Canada's defense strategy would likely combine conventional military strength with resourceful guerrilla warfare, leveraging its vast geography, seasoned forces, and deeply committed population. This multifaceted approach could transform challenges into opportunities, utilizing both natural and human assets to mount a formidable resistance against the United States.

At the heart of Canada's defense lies a diverse and ready coalition, including the Canadian Armed Forces - a compact yet capable force. With 68,000 active members, bolstered by 27,200 retirees from the past decade, the CAF brings disciplined expertise. The 27,000 Reserve Force members, supported by 5,400 recent retirees, add flexibility and depth, while the 5,200 active Canadian Rangers and their 520 retired counterparts from the past decade offer unparalleled mastery of northern and remote terrains - a critical edge in unconventional warfare.

Law enforcement agencies amplify this strength. The RCMP contributes 20,000 active officers and 10,000 retirees from the past decade, blending tactical skills with national reach. The Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) adds 6,200 officers and another 1,800 retirees since 2015, while the Sûreté du Québec (SQ) brings 6,000 active and 3,000 retired officers. The Toronto Police Service (TPS) rounds out the coalition with 6,000 active and 1,750 retired members, providing urban policing expertise adaptable to defense roles.

A standout asset is Canada's civilian firepower. With 2.4 million licensed gun owners plus and an estimated 4 million unlicensed owners (this number comes from a source connected to the Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights), mobilizing just 5% - 320,000 individuals - unlocks a vast reserve of armed citizens. Many are hunters or shooters with practical skills, ready to defend their land with personal stakes driving their resolve.

Together, this coalition forms a potential "Canada defense" force of approximately 510,000 personnel - a blend of trained professionals, experienced retirees, and motivated civilians poised to protect the homeland.

A guerrilla warfare plan, employing decentralized tactics like ambushes, hit-and-run strikes, and supply-line sabotage, would maximize the impact on American soldiers. The U.S. border, the most plausible invasion route, is dotted with strategic choke points: the open Prairies and its -45 degree winters, the Great Lakes' narrows, and mountain passes like the Rockies. These natural barriers could funnel foreign invaders into kill zones, amplifying defensive impact.

The Canadian Rangers, with their deep knowledge of northern survival and warfare, are a force multiplier, turning remote regions into impregnable strongholds. Pair them with 320,000 armed civilians - a contingent surpassing the Viet Cong's peak strength - and Canada gains a resilient backbone for prolonged resistance. This civilian army, rooted in local communities, brings not just numbers but an intimate understanding of the land, from backwoods trails to urban hideouts.

Canada's sheer scale and harsh climate, including -40°C winters, would stretch an invader thin, exposing supply lines to relentless harassment. This mirrors Finland's 1939 Winter War success, where terrain and tenacity humbled a larger foe.

A mobilized populace defending home soil would be a force of nature. These 320,000 civilians, many already armed and self-reliant, could evolve into a nimble militia, bolstered by police and military mentorship. Their numbers offer a renewable resource, with every town and village a potential resistance hub.

Canada's multicultural fabric could rally into a cohesive front, with communities pooling resources and ingenuity to ensure the front lines have access to food, water, and clothing.

Canada's guerrilla ambushes, supported by police tactical gear, could make American occupation a costly quagmire for the United States. If united by purpose, this coalition could not only defend but inspire, turning an American invasion into a testament to Canadian ingenuity and courage. One last thing, proponents of a "Canada First" approach often overlook a key fact - nations with nuclear deterrent capabilities are rarely, if ever, annexed. This is a lesson Ukraine has learned through painful experience. Canada stands alone in this geopolitical landscape, and perhaps the examples of Ukraine and Taiwan offer valuable insights worth heeding.