Leger / Assoc. Canadian Studies Poll: The Conservative Leadership Race and U.S. Politics

THIS SURVEY EXPLORES CANADIANS’ PERSPECTIVES ON THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE AND CANADIANS’ AND AMERICANS’ OPINIONS ON ECONOMIC RECESSION AND FEDERAL POLITICS.

As the Conservative leadership race continues, Leger is monitoring perceptions of which candidate would make the best leader among Canadians and Conservative voters.

This edition of our North American Tracker also explores whether Canadians and Americans think their country is in an economic recession.

In addition, we explore Americans’ voting intentions and perspectives on the fast-approaching midterm elections.

This survey is conducted in collaboration with the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS) and published in the Canadian Press. This series of surveys is available on Leger’s website >

SOME OF THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR SURVEY ABOUT THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE, ECONOMIC RECESSION AND FEDERAL POLITICS INCLUDE…

• While Canadian voters in general tend to think Charest would be the best Conservative Party of Canada leader, Pierre Poilievre is maintaining his sizeable lead among Conservative supporters.
• 57% of Canadians and 62% of Americans think their country is in an economic recession.
• Canadians think the biggest issues facing Canada today are inflation (21%) and healthcare (19%). Americans think the biggest issue facing the United States is inflation (20%).

METHODOLOGY

This web survey was conducted from August 5-7, 2022, with 1,509 Canadians and 1,002 Americans, 18 years of age or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of 1,509 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.52%, 19 times out of 20, while a probability sample of 1,002 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS THE RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS AND MORE!

• If [Pierre Poilievre/Jean Charest] were elected leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, would that make you more likely, less likely or not change the likelihood of you supporting that party in the next election?
• Which of the following characteristics do you most strongly associate with the Conservative leadership candidate [Pierre Poilievre/Jean Charest]?
• If a candidate for the November midterm elections is backed by Donald Trump, would that make you more likely, less likely or make no difference to how you plan to vote?
• Who do you plan to vote for in the November mid-term elections for the House of Representatives?
• Who would you like to vote for as President of the United States in 2024?