This week Rideau-Goulbourn (to be renamed Rideau-Jock) Ward Councillor Scott Moffat announced he would not be running for re-election in next years Ottawa Municipal elections. Moffatt’s announcement will start speculation on the future of the remainder of the class of 2010, ‘rookie’ Councillors, and Mayor in the 2022 election.
The election of that year saw a change at the top with Mayor Larry O’Brien toppled by Jim Watson who would start he second run as Mayor that fall. Other members of the class of 2010, those elected for the first time included Mark Taylor (Bay Ward), Keith Egli (Knoxdale-Merivale), Tim Tierney (Beacon Hill-Cyrville), Mathieu Fleury (Rideau-Vanier), Peter D. Clark (Rideau-Rockcliffe), Katherine Hobbs (Kitchissippi), David Chernushenko (Capital Ward), Stephen Blais (Cumberland) and Allan Hubley (Kanata South).
The Class of 2010 saw 9 new councillors and a (old) new Mayor elected; it was almost a clean wiping of the slate around the council table. Of the 10 elected, six remain; along with Moffat there is Watson, Hubley, Fleury, Tierney and Egli.
Mark Taylor bowed out in 2018, keeping a two term promise he made. Stephen Blais left mid-term in 2020 when ran to fill the Provincial seat of Orleans, Clark did not seek re-election in 2014. Hobbs was defeated in 2014 and in Capital Ward David Chernushenko served until 2018 when he was defeated by current seat holder Shawn Menard.
With Moffat now out of the running for 2022, the remaining members of class of 2010 may also consider what they’ll do in ’22. Let’s do some speculating.
Tim Tierney has been very popular winning each election with a clear majority. Beacon Hill-Cyrville is his for the keeping if he wants it. His name will be on the ballot again, but does he want to be the big fish in the small pond and run for Mayor – only Tim knows the answer to that.
Keith Egli is an enigma to me; he keeps quiet but plods along and does what he should without making waves. The voters must like that as he has increased his vote in subsequent elections. After 12 years, is there something else Keith Egli would rather be doing?
I wrote about Jim Watson two weeks ago, (https://redheartbluesign.wordpress.com/2021/11/07/ottawa-election-22-look-whos-back-lrt/) will he want to risk a loss? Will the upcoming Provincial inquiry into the LRT help or hurt his re-election chances. These are question he’ll have to debate with himself.
The final two members of the class are the most interesting races that may or may not take place.
Allan Hubley in Kanata South, the chair of the Transit Committee, and as a Councillor for the west end, transit is key. He delivered on Phase two going west, but can he avoid the troubles of Phase one if he seeks re-election? Kanata has seen massive growth with Hubley as the councillor, and in 2022 he will be 64 years old; will he want to do this one more time, and does he think he’ll ward off a younger challenger? I think not, I expect Hubley to follow in the steps of Moffatt and step aside.
In 2010, Mathieu Fleury fought and defeated Georges Bedard by 88 votes. His tale of victory is a story of determination; a former lifeguard Fleury knocked on doors and out worked Bedard to become, in 2010, the youngest ever elected Councillor. Now 36, Fleury, with 12 years under his belt may want to wear the chain of mayor around his neck. He’ll need to decide if he’ll out wait Watson to make that decision. He is young enough that he can step down and not run 2022. He can spend the next four years with his young family while investing energy and networking to run for the top job in 2026 if he doesn’t think he can win it now. If Watson is off the ballot for Mayor, Fleury likely will be.
There are still 18 other councillors that will have to state their intentions for 2022, if any of them have made up their mind and they are going to leave council they’ll announce sooner rather than later.
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