In an interview with CBC News Network three days ago, Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association of Canada, forecast that the Trump tariffs threatened for April 2 would shut down 20 to 30 of America’s 58 auto plants within a week. So how many jobs are we talking? Canada’s auto industry employs 125,000 workers. America’s auto industry employs 9.7 million, which is five percent of the U.S. private sector work force and is heavily concentrated in red states.
Yesterday’s “The Signal”, the Star’s polling aggregator, showed Libs leading Cons in the popular vote by five percentage points. The Libs’ superior vote efficiency would translate that lead into a Liberal majority government, with 193 Liberal seats compared to the Cons’ 132. The Signal report was an aggregation of nine polls published over the last five days, so these are very credible numbers. But for how much longer will the lead last? This could be the apex of Liberal popularity.
For the Canadian plants, once tariffs are lifted those factories will take a while to come back online. May? July? Certainly not before voting day. Without excellent, blanket Liberal messaging that identifies Trump as the cause of our massive unemployment problem and all of its downstream effects, Carney and the Liberals are likely to suffer the wrath of voters on April 28.
And as for Trump, once those plants start to close? Maybe impeachment and removal from office in a few weeks. Maybe that’s not quick enough and he is removed via the 25th amendment, in a matter of days. Either way, once North America’s auto industry starts to shut down, Trump is history.
Guy Talevi
March 29, 2025
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