The Next Separatist Crisis Isn’t in Alberta. It’s in Quebec

As a Quebecer living just on the other side of the river from the Ottawa Bubble, I know how little attention is generally paid to Quebec’s provincial politics. Our language, history, and culture make Quebec notoriously hard to grasp for decision makers in the nation’s capital. This is not a critique, simply a fact.

And while concern about the separatist movement in Alberta has led to the federal government making some questionable policy choices (yes, memorandum of understanding, I’m looking at you), the question of a potential looming referendum in Quebec has, so far, appeared not to have been top of mind for most federal decision makers—even taking in to account Doug Ford’s outburst at last week’s Council of the Federation meeting that a Parti Québécois victory in Quebec’s upcoming election would be a “disaster” for Canada.

The separatist PQ, relegated to their lowest ever number of seats in the 2022 election, has made a stunning comeback over the past few years. They won three out of four by-elections this term and are poised to form the next government if their lead continues in the polls.

Now more than ever, I believe that anyone interested in federal policy making, and the Prime Minister’s Office in particular, would do well to closely monitor the events happening in La Belle Province.

The risk of a referendum hasn’t been as high in thirty years. I know a referendum sounds like a long shot, and maybe it is. Ten months in politics is an eternity. Recent mishaps give credence to the theory that PQ leader Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon—known colloquially as “PSPP”—will pull a Pierre Poilievre and convince enough voters he’s not fit for the job. Any way you look at the current context, his party is undeniably the most likely to form government right now. Should they win in November, the PQ has promised a referendum in their first mandate.

Every time I’ve shared this tidbit with folks outside of Quebec, I’ve been met with a barrage of “it wouldn’t make economic sense given the trade conflict with the US,” “there’s no appetite for a referendum right now,” or “have they ever heard about Brexit?!” type comments. These are all fair points. Publicly and privately, former PQ tenors have also tried to encourage their party to steer away from an all-but-certain third go at separation—to no avail.

If the PQ is riding high in the polls, and if they continue to promote a third referendum on Quebec’s sovereignty in their first mandate, it is because they benefit politically from that promise, regardless of the outcome of the referendum itself. In 2022, PSPP spent the first month in office physically unable to take his seat in the National Assembly: he and his caucus refused to swear allegiance to the British Crown. That standoff ended when the National Assembly changed its rules. This is not someone who is going to change his mind about holding a referendum, no matter what polls and pundits say.

Think it’s hard to build things or get major policies through in Canada today? How about getting things done as the federal government’s attention is torn between dealing with Donald Trump and maintaining the second most populous province in the country within the federation? Although I was too young to recall 1995, anyone raised in Quebec will have heard the horror stories of ruined friendships, fallings-out between family members, neighbours refusing to speak to one another, and the general social tension around the 1980 and 1995 referendums. Even if a strong majority ultimately vote no, which appears to be the likeliest outcome, the fact is a referendum campaign puts every other issue on pause in Quebec—and by extension, Canada.

The other problem is there is currently no obvious Captain Canada to lead the “Remain” campaign (which we usually call the “Camp du Non”). History is not always the best guide, but looking back to 1980 and 1995, it sure was helpful to have strong ministers and party leaders steeped in Quebec’s culture, society, and politics. Trudeau Père, Jean Charest, and Jean Chrétien had their flaws, but they were also credible flagbearers. Who is that person today?

Even if Prime Minister Mark Carney drastically improves his French over the next few months, the fact remains that he does not personally understand Quebec. The blunder of his Plains of Abraham reference at the Citadelle de Québec at the end of January continues to be a running joke in our province. Furthermore, he has surrounded himself with mostly Rest of Canada men with quasi-identical CVs: Oxford; Bay Street; Goldman Sachs; Environmental, Social, and Government something something; Bank of Canada.

None of that speaks much to your average Quebecois household—in fact, the lack of sensitivity to Quebec’s peculiarities risks making a more compelling cause for Quebec to go its own way.

I’m not sure monsieur-madame-tout-le-monde is going to be convinced to remain in a country more interested in cutting deals with belligerent petro-provinces or attracting capital from the United Arab Emirates for artificial intelligence than addressing Quebec’s crumbling infrastructure, diminishing social services, and perpetually underfunded cultural sector.

Yes, there are strong Quebecois in Carney’s orbit (and I still believe Steven Guilbeault remains an important Quebec voice), but by most accounts, the only person making decisions in the Prime Minister’s Office is the PM himself. Will those individuals be unleashed and allowed to participate as they see fit in the upcoming Quebec political debate? Already there is a sense within the Quebec Liberal Party that the Liberal Party of Canada elite are singularly unhelpful to their cause. Pablo Rodriguez’s fall from grace certainly hasn’t done anything to dispel that idea. So, it remains unclear whether anyone associated with the federal Liberals will even be welcome on Quebec’s political stage.

For anyone patting themselves on the back because Quebec voted in record numbers for the Liberal Party of Canada in 2025, think again. It is too easy—and incorrect—to extrapolate too much from the Liberal Party of Canada’s recent success in the April election. Did Quebec send more Liberal members of Parliament than before to the House of Commons? Yes. Does that mean those votes will translate into Quebec Liberal Party votes? Absolutely not.

Quebec is the province with the strongest anti-Trump sentiment. Part of the 2025 Liberal voter coalition was motivated by fear of annexation and MAGA. Another part couldn’t handle Poilievre’s brand of politics (and, frankly, the fact that the Conservative Party maintained their strongest Quebecois candidates in witness protection throughout the campaign didn’t help).

• Quebec’s Bill 1 Will Be Secession by Other Means
• Most Quebecers Oppose Sovereignty. Even More Reject Another Referendum
• Quebec Is a Lot More Canadian Than Sovereigntists Want to Admit

But that was then. The Trumpageddon hasn’t really had a tangible impact on most Quebecers’ lives. Although concern about Trump remains strong, we’ve survived a year already. Poilievre’s Conservatives are—more likely than not—going to continue voting with the government or lose a few floor-crossers, which shields Quebec from worrying about a federal election for another three years. People will feel a lot more comfortable taking risks than they would have been this spring. That includes voting for a provincial party that is more idealistic and, frankly, less of a mess than the non-sovereigntist options on offer.

In fact, in the face of the free-trade negotiations with the Trump administration and the growing influence of western provinces on the Carney government, a greater number of Quebecois than ever may find it in their best interest to elect a nationalist government. Your average voter may not agree that Quebec should secede but still want their provincial government to defend issues such as supply management and hydro exports. Unless the Prime Minister’s Office sends some clear messages to Quebec that our issues continue to be important to them—which, so far, has not happened—voters might want to send a stronger message to Ottawa.

So, what to do about it? The Carney government is damned if they get too involved in the provincial election campaign and damned if they don’t. Just like any other province or territory in this federation, Quebec does not like being told what to think and do by folks who don’t know or understand our situation.

On the other hand, showing Quebec some love would probably sweeten the deal for voters who, just a month ago, were considering voting for Rodriguez’s Quebec Liberal Party, and who are now uncertain about what to do. But memories of the sponsorship scandal run deep here—you can bet there will rightfully be heightened scrutiny of any federalist initiatives as we get closer to an election hinging in part on the question of Quebec’s secession.

In the end, the simplest and most important act of love other Canadians can extend to their Quebecois family, friends, and colleagues may be this: pay attention. Lord knows there will be plenty to watch.

Adapted from “If you’re not watching what’s happening in Québec you’re losing the plot” by Alex Cool-Fergus (Substack).